FC St. Pauli 1-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 38%, yet in-form Werder Bremen provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Millerntor-Stadion plays host to FC St. Pauli versus Werder Bremen in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 9 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC St. Pauli have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC St. Pauli's home record at Millerntor-Stadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Werder Bremen (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Werder Bremen's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Werder Bremen are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Werder Bremen in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC St. Pauli, 0 for Werder Bremen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 61% and Werder Bremen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC St. Pauli 71% | Werder Bremen 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.82 xG and Werder Bremen 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.162 / defence 1.096 | Werder Bremen attack 1.179 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.401. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing FC St. Pauli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 FC St. Pauli games / 28 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 38% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 37%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Werder Bremen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Werder Bremen (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 60% | Werder Bremen 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 38% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 72% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.82 / Werder Bremen 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.162 / def 1.096 | Werder Bremen attack 1.179 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Werder Bremen xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 38% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen?
Record (1 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 1 | Werder Bremen 0W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (1.18x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
38%
2.65
25%
3.98
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.63
1.81
Werder Bremen xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.55
Clean Sheet
16%
6.12
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
6%
16.22
6%
16.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.81 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC St. Pauli's recent record stands at 15W 6D 7L from 28 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 6L across 28 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.86 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC St. Pauli have managed 10W 2D 1L from 13 games — 2.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 7W 2D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.86 scored and 1.32 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 64%.
Last 28 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
Werder Bremen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 15W 6D 7L in their last 28 games (1.82 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 15W 7D 6L in their last 28 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Werder Bremen away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.46 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
3
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen?
From 6 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 1, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when FC St. Pauli 2-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 54%, Werder Bremen 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for FC St. Pauli and 92% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FC St. Pauli's games and 69% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 92% of Werder Bremen's.
Do FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen finished level at 1-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.82 xG and Werder Bremen 1.81 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Werder Bremen landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.16 / defence 1.10 against Werder Bremen attack 1.18 / defence 1.36, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 38% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 37%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 71%, Werder Bremen 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.82 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.