FC St. Pauli 2-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

FC St. Pauli host SC Paderborn 07 at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 7W 3D 0L at Millerntor-Stadion — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, FC St. Pauli have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC St. Pauli register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC St. Pauli, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 55% versus SC Paderborn 07 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 52% | SC Paderborn 07 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.79 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.095 / defence 0.740 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.112 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.375. FC St. Pauli's defence rating of 0.740 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 FC St. Pauli games / 60 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 53% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 24%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | SC Paderborn 07 4.17. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 60% | SC Paderborn 07 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights