FC St. Pauli 2-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as FC St. Pauli take on Fortuna Düsseldorf.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Millerntor-Stadion plays host to FC St. Pauli versus Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC St. Pauli have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Millerntor-Stadion, FC St. Pauli have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 4W 6D 0L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FC St. Pauli 0W, Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 67% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 67% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.20 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.009 / defence 1.074 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.760 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.444. Data: 33 FC St. Pauli games / 33 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 33% | Draw 35% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 32%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 80% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 33% | Draw 35% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.20 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.009 / def 1.074 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.760 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
FC St. Pauli 2 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 33% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (1 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (1.01) and Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (0.76x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.05
35%
2.83
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.38
1.18
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
3.05
33%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.18 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 33 games, going 15W 9D 9L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.33 PPG from 33 outings (11W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.33 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 10W 4D 2L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 1.25 points per game from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.36 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 61%.
Last 33 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 15W 9D 9L in their last 33 games (1.64 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 11W 11D 11L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.12 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
3
Draws
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 6 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 62%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (FC St. Pauli) and 44% (Fortuna Düsseldorf). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC St. Pauli's games and 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 44% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.20 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.18 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.01 / defence 1.07 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.76 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 33% | Draw 35% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual FC St. Pauli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 67%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.64 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.