FC St. Pauli 1-0 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC St. Pauli face Eintracht Braunschweig.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Millerntor-Stadion plays host to FC St. Pauli versus Eintracht Braunschweig in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC St. Pauli have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC St. Pauli at home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record over their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Eintracht Braunschweig have posted 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.80 for Eintracht Braunschweig. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Eintracht Braunschweig edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2023, ended FC St. Pauli 1–1 Eintracht Braunschweig — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Eintracht Braunschweig half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 56% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 53% | Eintracht Braunschweig 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.81 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.144 / defence 0.837 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.795 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.384. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from FC St. Pauli's last 55 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 55.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 58% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 19%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.72 | Draw 4.38 | Eintracht Braunschweig 5.30. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC St. Pauli's last 10 home games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC St. Pauli 70% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Braunschweig 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 58% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG FC St. Pauli 1.81 / Eintracht Braunschweig 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.144 / def 0.837 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.795 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig FAQs
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 58% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (1.14) and Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Eintracht Braunschweig's attack (0.80x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from FC St. Pauli's last 55 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.38
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.73
0.92
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
3%
32.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.92 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 55 games, going 27W 19D 9L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Eintracht Braunschweig sit at 1.07 PPG from 55 outings (16W 11D 28L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 14W 12D 1L across their last 27 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Braunschweig have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 27 away games (4W 6D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.15 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
FC St. Pauli (Home) vs Eintracht Braunschweig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig Form FAQs
What form are FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 27W 19D 9L in their last 55 games (1.82 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 16W 11D 28L in their last 55 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.00 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.67 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or Eintracht Braunschweig been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Eintracht Braunschweig in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, FC St. Pauli have won 1, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 February 2024: FC St. Pauli 1-0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Eintracht Braunschweig have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC St. Pauli see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 52%, Eintracht Braunschweig 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FC St. Pauli) and 63% (Eintracht Braunschweig).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC St. Pauli's games and 63% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 63% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 67% of Eintracht Braunschweig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.81 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.92 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC St. Pauli fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Eintracht Braunschweig landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.14 / defence 0.84 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 58% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 19%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 53%, Eintracht Braunschweig 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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