FC St. Pauli 3-0 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 4 as FC St. Pauli welcome 1. FC Magdeburg to Millerntor-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC St. Pauli's home record at Millerntor-Stadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have recorded 1W 0D 2L from 3 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC St. Pauli at 1.00 PPG versus 1. FC Magdeburg's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
FC St. Pauli trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
1. FC Magdeburg trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 100% and 1. FC Magdeburg 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC St. Pauli 100% | 1. FC Magdeburg 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 2.00 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.190 / defence 1.043 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.055 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.300. Data: 37 FC St. Pauli games / 3 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 51% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 28%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3.57. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 70% | 1. FC Magdeburg 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 51% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG FC St. Pauli 2.00 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.190 / def 1.043 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.055 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.43
1. FC Magdeburg xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
FC St. Pauli 3 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 51% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Magdeburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (1.19) and 1. FC Magdeburg's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.62
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.43
1.43
1. FC Magdeburg xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
4%
26.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.43 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC St. Pauli's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Magdeburg, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 2L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 1.33 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
FC St. Pauli are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.67 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 100%.
Last 3 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Magdeburg runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when FC St. Pauli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting 1. FC Magdeburg specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
1
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 2, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Magdeburg?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC St. Pauli at 100%, 1. FC Magdeburg at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC St. Pauli and 100% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC St. Pauli's games and 100% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 100% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC St. Pauli run riot with a 3-0 hammering of 1. FC Magdeburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat 1. FC Magdeburg 3-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 2.00 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.43 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC St. Pauli beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.19 / defence 1.04 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.05 / defence 1.14, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 51% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 28%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 100%, 1. FC Magdeburg 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.33 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Magdeburg managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.