FC Ingolstadt 04 1-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Holstein Kiel travel to Audi-Sportpark to take on FC Ingolstadt 04. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 outings — a 0.44 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.56 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Ingolstadt 04's home record at Audi-Sportpark: 0W 1D 3L from 4 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Holstein Kiel — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.44 PPG (FC Ingolstadt 04) versus 0.80 (Holstein Kiel). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
FC Ingolstadt 04 trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Holstein Kiel trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Ingolstadt 04 44% versus Holstein Kiel 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Ingolstadt 04 78% | Holstein Kiel 89%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Ingolstadt 04 0.97 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.686 / defence 1.305 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.921 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.446. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Holstein Kiel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing FC Ingolstadt 04's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 FC Ingolstadt 04 games / 9 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 18% | Draw 30% | Holstein Kiel 52%. Fair-value odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 5.56 | Draw 3.33 | Holstein Kiel 1.92. Holstein Kiel hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Holstein Kiel as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Ingolstadt 04 50% | Holstein Kiel 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Audi-Sportpark • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 18% | Draw 30% | Holstein Kiel 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Ingolstadt 04 0.97 / Holstein Kiel 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.686 / def 1.305 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.921 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Holstein Kiel xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Audi-Sportpark.
What was the final score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Holstein Kiel?
FC Ingolstadt 04 1 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Audi-Sportpark.
What competition is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Holstein Kiel part of?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 18% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 52% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Ingolstadt 04 and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Holstein Kiel?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Holstein Kiel in?
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 1W-1D-7L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.56 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Ingolstadt 04's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus FC Ingolstadt 04's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
18%
5.70
30%
3.29
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Total xG
2.71
1.74
Holstein Kiel xG
5.70
18%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
3%
32.44
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.6 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.74 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Ingolstadt 04 come into this having played 9 games, going 1W 1D 7L for 0.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for FC Ingolstadt 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Holstein Kiel carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of FC Ingolstadt 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Ingolstadt 04's home form reads 0W 1D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.00 scored and 2.11 conceded.
Last 9 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Ingolstadt 04
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 1D 7L in their last 9 games (0.44 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home: 0.25 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
1
Draws
1
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Holstein Kiel?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, Holstein Kiel have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Ingolstadt 04 and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when Holstein Kiel 1-0 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Ingolstadt 04 tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Ingolstadt 04 50%, Holstein Kiel 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 100% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Ingolstadt 04 home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Ingolstadt 04 play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Ingolstadt 04's games and 75% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of FC Ingolstadt 04's matches and 100% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do FC Ingolstadt 04 and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Ingolstadt 04 and Holstein Kiel share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Ingolstadt 04 and Holstein Kiel finished level at 1-1 at Audi-Sportpark, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Ingolstadt 04 0.97 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.74 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.69 / defence 1.30 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.92 / defence 1.29, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Ingolstadt 04 18% | Draw 30% | Holstein Kiel 52%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Ingolstadt 04 78%, Holstein Kiel 89%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 0.89 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.