1. FC Heidenheim 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Arminia Bielefeld encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Voith-Arena plays host to 1. FC Heidenheim versus Arminia Bielefeld in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 21 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 7W 1D 2L at Voith-Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Arminia Bielefeld (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arminia Bielefeld away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. 1. FC Heidenheim's 1.60 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Arminia Bielefeld's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Arminia Bielefeld goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 47% versus Arminia Bielefeld 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 53% | Arminia Bielefeld 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.09 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.109 / defence 0.874 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.821 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.423. Arminia Bielefeld bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 1. FC Heidenheim games / 4 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 62% | Draw 20% | Arminia Bielefeld 18%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Arminia Bielefeld 5.56. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | Arminia Bielefeld 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 62% | Draw 20% | Arminia Bielefeld 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.09 / Arminia Bielefeld 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.109 / def 0.874 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.821 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Arminia Bielefeld xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Arminia Bielefeld?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 62% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Arminia Bielefeld?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Arminia Bielefeld in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 1.11x the league average against Arminia Bielefeld's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arminia Bielefeld's attack (0.82x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
62%
1.62
20%
4.89
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.11
1.02
Arminia Bielefeld xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
12%
8.06
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
2%
45.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.02 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 38 games, going 18W 7D 13L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Arminia Bielefeld sit at 0.74 PPG from 38 outings (5W 13D 20L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Heidenheim carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 11W 4D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Arminia Bielefeld have taken 0.61 points per game from 18 outings (3W 2D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.76 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 38 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 18W 7D 13L in their last 38 games (1.61 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 5W 13D 20L in their last 38 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.06 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
0
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 1, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Arminia Bielefeld?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 61%, Arminia Bielefeld 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 50% (Arminia Bielefeld). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Arminia Bielefeld?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 39% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 50% of Arminia Bielefeld's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim and Arminia Bielefeld share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 5, as 1. FC Heidenheim and Arminia Bielefeld drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 2.09 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.02 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.11 / defence 0.87 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.82 / defence 1.25, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 62% | Draw 20% | Arminia Bielefeld 18%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 53%, Arminia Bielefeld 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.