Erzgebirge AUE 2-2 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hansa Rostock at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Erzgebirge AUE vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Erzgebirge AUE host Hansa Rostock at Erzgebirgsstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Erzgebirge AUE have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Erzgebirge AUE's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 games at Erzgebirgsstadion this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Hansa Rostock — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Hansa Rostock's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Erzgebirge AUE's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Erzgebirge AUE, 0 for Hansa Rostock and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Erzgebirge AUE winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Erzgebirge AUE trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hansa Rostock trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzgebirge AUE 53% versus Hansa Rostock 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzgebirge AUE 60% | Hansa Rostock 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzgebirge AUE 1.05 xG and Hansa Rostock 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.712 / defence 1.544 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.909 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.441. Erzgebirge AUE's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hansa Rostock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Erzgebirge AUE's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Erzgebirge AUE games / 30 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 17% | Draw 26% | Hansa Rostock 58%. Fair-value odds: Erzgebirge AUE 5.88 | Draw 3.85 | Hansa Rostock 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Hansa Rostock (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hansa Rostock as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Erzgebirge AUE 40% | Hansa Rostock 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzgebirge AUE vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Erzgebirgsstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 17% | Draw 26% | Hansa Rostock 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Erzgebirge AUE 1.05 / Hansa Rostock 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.712 / def 1.544 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.909 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Hansa Rostock xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzgebirge AUE vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
Erzgebirge AUE vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What was the final score in Erzgebirge AUE vs Hansa Rostock?
Erzgebirge AUE 2 - 2 Hansa Rostock.
Where is Erzgebirge AUE vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What competition is Erzgebirge AUE vs Hansa Rostock part of?
Erzgebirge AUE vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Erzgebirge AUE vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives Erzgebirge AUE a 17% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 58% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge AUE vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Erzgebirge AUE and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will Erzgebirge AUE vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and Hansa Rostock?
Record (1 meetings): Erzgebirge AUE 1W | Draws 0 | Hansa Rostock 0W.
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and Hansa Rostock in?
Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Erzgebirge AUE's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus Erzgebirge AUE's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
17%
5.93
26%
3.90
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Total xG
3.07
2.02
Hansa Rostock xG
5.93
17%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
13%
7.55
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
2%
44.83
20%
4.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzgebirge AUE vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Erzgebirge AUE and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Erzgebirge AUE and 2.02 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzgebirge AUE vs Hansa Rostock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Erzgebirge AUE's recent record stands at 5W 7D 18L from 30 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 12L across 30 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hansa Rostock by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Erzgebirge AUE heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Erzgebirge AUE have managed 3W 2D 10L from 15 games — 0.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 6W 4D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hansa Rostock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Erzgebirge AUE are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.23 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 30 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzgebirge AUE
Current Season
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
Erzgebirge AUE have gone 5W 7D 18L in their last 30 games (0.73 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzgebirge AUE at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Hansa Rostock's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzgebirge AUE at home: 0.73 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Erzgebirge AUE
1
Draws
0
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and Hansa Rostock?
From 2 meetings on record, Erzgebirge AUE have won 1, Hansa Rostock have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Erzgebirge AUE and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2022, when Erzgebirge AUE 2-2 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Erzgebirge AUE and Hansa Rostock?
Erzgebirge AUE have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Erzgebirge AUE are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzgebirge AUE 47%, Hansa Rostock 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Erzgebirge AUE) and 60% (Hansa Rostock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Erzgebirge AUE have failed to score in 33% of games; Hansa Rostock in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzgebirge AUE home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzgebirge AUE play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Erzgebirge AUE's recent matches and 47% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzgebirge AUE vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Erzgebirge AUE's matches and 60% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do Erzgebirge AUE and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
Erzgebirge AUE have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Erzgebirge AUE and Hansa Rostock share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Erzgebirge AUE and Hansa Rostock finished level at 2-2 at Erzgebirgsstadion, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzgebirge AUE 1.05 xG and Hansa Rostock 2.02 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Erzgebirge AUE beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.71 / defence 1.54 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.91 / defence 1.31, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzgebirge AUE 17% | Draw 26% | Hansa Rostock 58%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzgebirge AUE 60%, Hansa Rostock 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hansa Rostock arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.