Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 Preußen Münster – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Eintracht Braunschweig face Preußen Münster.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Preußen Münster travel to Eintracht-Stadion to take on Eintracht Braunschweig in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Eintracht Braunschweig are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Preußen Münster — last 9 games: 1W 3D 5L — 0.67 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings (22%). Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Preußen Münster have posted 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eintracht Braunschweig 0.70 PPG, Preußen Münster 0.67 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Preußen Münster in-play and half-time data (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Braunschweig 67% and Preußen Münster 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Braunschweig 67% | Preußen Münster 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 2.13 xG and Preußen Münster 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.979 / defence 0.824 | Preußen Münster attack 0.947 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.572. Preußen Münster's defence rating of 1.283 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Eintracht Braunschweig's projected output up. Data: built from Eintracht Braunschweig's last 43 games and Preußen Münster's last 9.
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 57% | Draw 23% | Preußen Münster 20%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.76 | Draw 4.38 | Preußen Münster 4.95. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Braunschweig (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.13 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Braunschweig are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 home games and Preußen Münster's last 4 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Eintracht Braunschweig 30% (last 10 home games) | Preußen Münster 75% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 10 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 57% | Draw 23% | Preußen Münster 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 2.13 / Preußen Münster 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.979 / def 0.824 | Preußen Münster attack 0.947 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.572 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Braunschweig (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Preußen Münster xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster FAQs
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 1 Preußen Münster.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 10) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 57% chance of winning, Preußen Münster a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Braunschweig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Eintracht Braunschweig's attack at 0.98x the league average against Preußen Münster's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Preußen Münster's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eintracht Braunschweig's last 43 games and Preußen Münster's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Braunschweig Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.38
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
3.36
1.23
Preußen Münster xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
12%
8.44
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
2%
41.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.23 for Preußen Münster, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Braunschweig come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 1D 6L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Preußen Münster sit at 0.67 PPG from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 0.78 PPG, Preußen Münster on 0.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Eintracht Braunschweig's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across their last 4 home games, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Eintracht Braunschweig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Preußen Münster have taken 0.75 points per game from their last 4 away games (1W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Braunschweig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game recently; Preußen Münster are on 1.33 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Braunschweig have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Preußen Münster in 67%.
Last 9 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
Preußen Münster
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig (Home) vs Preußen Münster (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
Preußen Münster
Blended
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster Form FAQs
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Preußen Münster have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or Preußen Münster away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.50 PPG; Preußen Münster away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Preußen Münster have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting Preußen Münster specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
2
Draws
2
Preußen Münster
Recent Meetings
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, Preußen Münster have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 Preußen Münster.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster?
Preußen Münster have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Preußen Münster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 50%, Preußen Münster 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Eintracht Braunschweig and 100% for Preußen Münster. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Preußen Münster away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 75% of Preußen Münster's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 100% of Preußen Münster's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 100% of Preußen Münster's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster finished level at 1-1 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 2.13 xG and Preußen Münster 1.23 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.98 / defence 0.82 against Preußen Münster attack 0.95 / defence 1.28, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 57% | Draw 23% | Preußen Münster 20%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 67%, Preußen Münster 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Preußen Münster's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 0.78 PPG, Preußen Münster 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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