Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Holstein Kiel travel to Eintracht-Stadion to take on Eintracht Braunschweig. The game is scheduled for Friday 9 October 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eintracht Braunschweig have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record at Eintracht-Stadion: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Holstein Kiel have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.00 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eintracht Braunschweig register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Holstein Kiel in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Holstein Kiel, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Holstein Kiel winning.
It is worth noting that Holstein Kiel have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Braunschweig 60% and Holstein Kiel 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 52% | Holstein Kiel 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.54 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.965 / defence 1.221 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.764 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.448. Data: 40 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 40 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 42% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 33%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Holstein Kiel 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Braunschweig are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Braunschweig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Braunschweig 70% | Holstein Kiel 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 42% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.54 / Holstein Kiel 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.965 / def 1.221 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.764 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Braunschweig (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Holstein Kiel xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 0 Holstein Kiel.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 42% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Braunschweig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Holstein Kiel?
Record (6 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 1W | Draws 1 | Holstein Kiel 4W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Holstein Kiel in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Eintracht Braunschweig's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Braunschweig Win
42%
2.38
25%
4.05
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.89
1.35
Holstein Kiel xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
7%
14.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.35 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Eintracht Braunschweig have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 8D 21L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Holstein Kiel's form line: 11W 12D 17L from 40 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.02 PPG, Holstein Kiel on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Eintracht Braunschweig have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (6W 6D 8L).
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 5W 5D 10L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.27 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Braunschweig have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Holstein Kiel in 62%.
Last 40 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Early Season
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.20 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Holstein Kiel won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
1
Draws
4
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Holstein Kiel?
From 7 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, Holstein Kiel have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Braunschweig at 65%, Holstein Kiel at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 55% (Holstein Kiel). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 65% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 55% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Braunschweig edge out Holstein Kiel 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat Holstein Kiel 1-0 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.54 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.35 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Holstein Kiel landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.96 / defence 1.22 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.76 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 42% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 33%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 52%, Holstein Kiel 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.02 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Braunschweig win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.