Eintracht Braunschweig 0-1 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 40%, yet in-form Eintracht Braunschweig provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Eintracht Braunschweig welcome Hansa Rostock to Eintracht-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 3L across 8 games at Eintracht-Stadion this term (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hansa Rostock stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hansa Rostock have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Eintracht Braunschweig have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Hansa Rostock in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 56% versus Hansa Rostock 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 50% | Hansa Rostock 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.20 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.800 / defence 1.034 | Hansa Rostock attack 1.013 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.322. Data: 16 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 50 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 32% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 40%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Hansa Rostock 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hansa Rostock as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eintracht Braunschweig (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Braunschweig 50% | Hansa Rostock 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 32% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.20 / Hansa Rostock 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.800 / def 1.034 | Hansa Rostock attack 1.013 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Hansa Rostock xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock?
Eintracht Braunschweig 0 - 1 Hansa Rostock.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 32% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eintracht Braunschweig's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
32%
3.16
28%
3.54
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.59
1.39
Hansa Rostock xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
8%
12.63
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.39 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record stands at 4W 6D 6L from 16 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 8L across 16 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.12 PPG, Hansa Rostock on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eintracht Braunschweig have managed 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Eintracht Braunschweig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Braunschweig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.00 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 16 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 games (1.12 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 5W 3D 8L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.57 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hansa Rostock have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
0
Draws
4
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock?
From 4 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, Hansa Rostock have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Eintracht Braunschweig 0-1 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 57%, Hansa Rostock 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 57% (Hansa Rostock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 43% of games; Hansa Rostock in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 43% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 57% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hansa Rostock edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat Eintracht Braunschweig 0-1 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.20 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.39 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Eintracht Braunschweig fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.80 / defence 1.03 against Hansa Rostock attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 32% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 40%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 50%, Hansa Rostock 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hansa Rostock win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.