Eintracht Braunschweig 2-0 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Heidenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Eintracht-Stadion plays host to Eintracht Braunschweig versus 1. FC Heidenheim in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 4 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eintracht Braunschweig have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Eintracht-Stadion, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 3W 2D 4L this season (9 games, 1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. 1. FC Heidenheim are 0.80 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (2.10 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Eintracht Braunschweig 0W, 1. FC Heidenheim 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2022, ended 0–3 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Eintracht Braunschweig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 56% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 50% | 1. FC Heidenheim 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.776 / defence 1.051 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.008 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.348. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 52 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 30% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Heidenheim 44%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Braunschweig 44% | 1. FC Heidenheim 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 30% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Heidenheim 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.776 / def 1.051 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.008 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.43
1. FC Heidenheim xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Eintracht Braunschweig 2 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 30% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (1 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating (0.78) and 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (1.01x) against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
30%
3.37
26%
3.80
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.55
1.43
1. FC Heidenheim xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
7%
14.04
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.43 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eintracht Braunschweig come into this having played 18 games, going 4W 6D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Heidenheim sit at 2.00 PPG from 18 outings (10W 6D 2L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Eintracht Braunschweig's home form reads 3W 2D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Heidenheim have taken 1.44 points per game from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Attack vs Defence
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.94 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 4W 6D 8L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 6D 2L in their last 18 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
1. FC Heidenheim's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.22 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Eintracht Braunschweig or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Braunschweig have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
0
Draws
1
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 2 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Eintracht Braunschweig 2-0 1. FC Heidenheim.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 44%, 1. FC Heidenheim 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 44% (1. FC Heidenheim).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim in 44%; Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 56% of games; 1. FC Heidenheim in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 44% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 44% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.43 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.78 / defence 1.05 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 30% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Heidenheim 44%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Eintracht Braunschweig win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 50%, 1. FC Heidenheim 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Braunschweig winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.