Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at SchücoArena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 May 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Arminia Bielefeld (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 3W 2D 5L at SchücoArena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.30 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Arminia Bielefeld register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Arminia Bielefeld, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Arminia Bielefeld — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arminia Bielefeld 58% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 52% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.71 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.911 / defence 1.338 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.815 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.300. Data: 30 Arminia Bielefeld games / 30 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 45% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.12. Arminia Bielefeld hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arminia Bielefeld are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 70% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 45% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.71 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.911 / def 1.338 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.815 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.42
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 5 May 2023 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 45% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (3 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 2 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 0.91x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.81x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
45%
2.24
23%
4.26
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
3.13
1.42
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
6%
17.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.42 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 64 games, going 13W 18D 33L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 0.84 PPG from 64 outings (12W 18D 34L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Arminia Bielefeld against 0.84 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Arminia Bielefeld's home form reads 7W 12D 13L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 0.41 points per game from 32 outings (2W 7D 23L). That's a step down from their 0.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arminia Bielefeld come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.05 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 67%.
Last 64 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 13W 18D 33L in their last 64 games (0.89 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 12W 18D 34L in their last 64 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Arminia Bielefeld's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.03 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
3
Draws
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Arminia Bielefeld, 72% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Arminia Bielefeld and 75% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 72% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 75% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 31, as Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.71 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.42 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.91 / defence 1.34 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.81 / defence 1.19, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 45% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 52%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arminia Bielefeld 0.89 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.