1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 43%, yet in-form SV Wehen provide a compelling counter-argument — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Max-Morlock-Stadion plays host to 1. FC Nürnberg versus SV Wehen in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Nürnberg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Max-Morlock-Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Max-Morlock-Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SV Wehen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. SV Wehen have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Wehen arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
SV Wehen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 40% versus SV Wehen 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (1. FC Nürnberg 40% | SV Wehen 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 xG and SV Wehen 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.000 / defence 0.957 | SV Wehen attack 0.836 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.382. Data: 37 1. FC Nürnberg games / 3 SV Wehen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 43% | Draw 27% | SV Wehen 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | SV Wehen 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Wehen (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% | SV Wehen 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 43% | Draw 27% | SV Wehen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 / SV Wehen 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.000 / def 0.957 | SV Wehen attack 0.836 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
SV Wehen xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 1 SV Wehen.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 43% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. SV Wehen (all comps): 4W-1D-0L in 5 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (1.00) and SV Wehen's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Wehen's attack (0.84x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 37/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.72
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.48
1.10
SV Wehen xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.10 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Wehen, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 0L across 5 games — 2.60 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for SV Wehen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Wehen by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Nürnberg heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.80 scored and 0.40 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; SV Wehen in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
SV Wehen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 (2.60 PPG).
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or SV Wehen been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, SV Wehen in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
0
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 1, SV Wehen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when SV Wehen 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 40%, SV Wehen 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 40% (SV Wehen).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; SV Wehen in 60%; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SV Wehen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 40% of SV Wehen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 40% of SV Wehen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SV Wehen in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out SV Wehen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SV Wehen 2-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 xG and SV Wehen 1.10 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against SV Wehen attack 0.84 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 43% | Draw 27% | SV Wehen 30%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 40%, SV Wehen 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Wehen's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Wehen arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.60. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Nürnberg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Nürnberg scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. SV Wehen managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.