1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Max-Morlock-Stadion plays host to 1. FC Nürnberg versus SV Sandhausen in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 25 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg at Max-Morlock-Stadion this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SV Sandhausen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SV Sandhausen have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward 1. FC Nürnberg. A 0.50 PPG lead over SV Sandhausen (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: 1. FC Nürnberg 2W, SV Sandhausen 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
SV Sandhausen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 49% versus SV Sandhausen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 54% | SV Sandhausen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.20 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.758 / defence 0.897 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.878 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.317. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 1. FC Nürnberg games / 55 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Draw 29% | SV Sandhausen 32%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | SV Sandhausen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% | SV Sandhausen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Draw 29% | SV Sandhausen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.20 / SV Sandhausen 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.758 / def 0.897 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.878 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.04
SV Sandhausen xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen?
1. FC Nürnberg 1 - 0 SV Sandhausen.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 40% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 2W | Draws 0 | SV Sandhausen 1W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (0.76) and SV Sandhausen's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Sandhausen's attack (0.88x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.48
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.23
1.04
SV Sandhausen xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.04 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 20W 13D 22L from 55 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Sandhausen, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 25L across 55 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.09 for SV Sandhausen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 12W 4D 11L from 27 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Sandhausen's away record stands at 8W 8D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 1.18 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen in 62%.
Last 55 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
SV Sandhausen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 20W 13D 22L in their last 55 games (1.33 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 15W 15D 25L in their last 55 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SV Sandhausen away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.48 PPG; SV Sandhausen away: 1.19 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or SV Sandhausen been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SV Sandhausen in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
1. FC Nürnberg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Sandhausen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
0
Draws
1
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, SV Sandhausen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when 1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 SV Sandhausen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 48%, SV Sandhausen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 48% (SV Sandhausen).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SV Sandhausen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 67% of SV Sandhausen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 48% of SV Sandhausen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SV Sandhausen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out SV Sandhausen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SV Sandhausen 1-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.20 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.04 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SV Sandhausen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.76 / defence 0.90 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Draw 29% | SV Sandhausen 32%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 54%, SV Sandhausen 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 PPG, SV Sandhausen 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.