1. FC Nürnberg 2-4 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Max-Morlock-Stadion plays host to 1. FC Nürnberg versus SV Sandhausen in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 24 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Nürnberg at Max-Morlock-Stadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Sandhausen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SV Sandhausen have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.50 for SV Sandhausen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, SV Sandhausen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: 1. FC Nürnberg 1W, SV Sandhausen 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
SV Sandhausen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 57% and SV Sandhausen 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 60% | SV Sandhausen 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.28 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.095 / defence 1.147 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.761 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.441. Data: 30 1. FC Nürnberg games / 30 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 34% | Draw 33% | SV Sandhausen 33%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | SV Sandhausen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 70% | SV Sandhausen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 34% | Draw 33% | SV Sandhausen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.28 / SV Sandhausen 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.095 / def 1.147 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.761 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
SV Sandhausen xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 4 SV Sandhausen.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 34% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 1W | Draws 0 | SV Sandhausen 0W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (1.09) and SV Sandhausen's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Sandhausen's attack (0.76x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
34%
2.93
33%
3.06
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.54
1.26
SV Sandhausen xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
9%
10.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.26 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 14W 8D 8L from 30 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
SV Sandhausen, meanwhile, have gone 8W 11D 11L across 30 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Nürnberg by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Sandhausen heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 8W 3D 4L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Sandhausen's away record stands at 5W 6D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 1.13 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen in 63%.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
SV Sandhausen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 14W 8D 8L in their last 30 games (1.67 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 8W 11D 11L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SV Sandhausen away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.80 PPG; SV Sandhausen away: 1.40 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or SV Sandhausen been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, SV Sandhausen in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
1. FC Nürnberg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Sandhausen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
0
Draws
1
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, SV Sandhausen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when 1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 SV Sandhausen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SV Sandhausen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 53%, SV Sandhausen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 47% (SV Sandhausen).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SV Sandhausen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 67% of SV Sandhausen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 47% of SV Sandhausen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Sandhausen tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SV Sandhausen in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Sandhausen cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Sandhausen beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-4 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.28 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.26 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. SV Sandhausen outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.09 / defence 1.15 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.76 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 34% | Draw 33% | SV Sandhausen 33%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual SV Sandhausen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 60%, SV Sandhausen 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with SV Sandhausen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.