1. FC Magdeburg 0-0 SSV Ulm 1846 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees SSV Ulm 1846 travel to Avnet Arena to take on 1. FC Magdeburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Avnet Arena, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 0W 7D 3L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Avnet Arena this season.
SSV Ulm 1846 — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Ulm 1846's away record: 1W 2D 2L from 5 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
1. FC Magdeburg are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
1. FC Magdeburg trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
SSV Ulm 1846 trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 73% and SSV Ulm 1846 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Magdeburg 91% | SSV Ulm 1846 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.29 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.885 / defence 1.150 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.712 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.528. Data: 45 1. FC Magdeburg games / 11 SSV Ulm 1846 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 36% | Draw 30% | SSV Ulm 1846 34%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | SSV Ulm 1846 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | SSV Ulm 1846 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Avnet Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 36% | Draw 30% | SSV Ulm 1846 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.29 / SSV Ulm 1846 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.885 / def 1.150 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.712 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.25
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Avnet Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
1. FC Magdeburg 0 - 0 SSV Ulm 1846.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 being played?
The match is being played at Avnet Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 36% chance of winning, SSV Ulm 1846 a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Ulm 1846 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Ulm 1846?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Ulm 1846 in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Magdeburg's attack at 0.89x the league average against SSV Ulm 1846's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Ulm 1846's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
36%
2.80
30%
3.29
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.54
1.25
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
9%
10.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Ulm 1846 expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.25 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Magdeburg come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 5D 2L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SSV Ulm 1846 sit at 0.82 PPG from 11 outings (2W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Magdeburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of SSV Ulm 1846 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Magdeburg's home form reads 0W 4D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.55 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, SSV Ulm 1846 have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
The Goals Picture
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; SSV Ulm 1846 are on 0.91 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Ulm 1846 in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 games (1.55 PPG), while SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SSV Ulm 1846 away?
SSV Ulm 1846's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 0.80 PPG; SSV Ulm 1846 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Ulm 1846 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
1. FC Magdeburg
1
Draws
1
SSV Ulm 1846
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Ulm 1846?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 0, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Ulm 1846 last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when SSV Ulm 1846 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Ulm 1846?
SSV Ulm 1846 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
SSV Ulm 1846 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 60%, SSV Ulm 1846 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 20% (SSV Ulm 1846).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 40% of games; SSV Ulm 1846 in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SSV Ulm 1846 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play SSV Ulm 1846?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 40% of SSV Ulm 1846's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent games and 20% of SSV Ulm 1846's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Ulm 1846 tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SSV Ulm 1846 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1. FC Magdeburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 12, as 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Ulm 1846 drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.29 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.25 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SSV Ulm 1846 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.71 / defence 0.92, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 36% | Draw 30% | SSV Ulm 1846 34%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 91%, SSV Ulm 1846 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Magdeburg arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.