1. FC Magdeburg 0-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 meet at MDCC-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 March 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 3W 2D 5L at MDCC-Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.30 for SC Paderborn 07. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Magdeburg lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 65% versus SC Paderborn 07 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Magdeburg 65% | SC Paderborn 07 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.16 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.828 / defence 1.048 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.094 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.251. Data: 23 1. FC Magdeburg games / 57 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 31% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 43%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | SC Paderborn 07 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | SC Paderborn 07 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 31% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.16 / SC Paderborn 07 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.828 / def 1.048 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.094 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.43
SC Paderborn 07 xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
1. FC Magdeburg 0 - 0 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 31% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 0W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.09x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
31%
3.27
26%
3.83
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.59
1.43
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
7%
13.72
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.43 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 8W 3D 12L from 23 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 12W 3D 8L across 23 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Magdeburg heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 3W 2D 6L from 11 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 4W 3D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 2.04 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: SC Paderborn 07 in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 8W 3D 12L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 12W 3D 8L in their last 23 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.00 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.36 PPG.
Have 1. FC Magdeburg or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SC Paderborn 07 have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
1. FC Magdeburg
4
Draws
4
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 4-3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 54%, SC Paderborn 07 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 64% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 36%; 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 54% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent games and 64% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1. FC Magdeburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 24, as 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.16 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.43 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.09 / defence 0.99, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 31% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 43%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 65%, SC Paderborn 07 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.