1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-0 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 8 as 1. FC Kaiserslautern welcome VfL Bochum to Fritz-Walter-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. 1. FC Kaiserslautern have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Kaiserslautern at Fritz-Walter-Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fritz-Walter-Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
VfL Bochum — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfL Bochum have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfL Bochum's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
1. FC Kaiserslautern carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1 for VfL Bochum and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 2–3 with VfL Bochum winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Kaiserslautern in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
VfL Bochum in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 42% versus VfL Bochum 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Kaiserslautern 56% | VfL Bochum 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.36 xG and VfL Bochum 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.931 / defence 0.683 | VfL Bochum attack 0.960 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.344. 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence rating of 0.683 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 1. FC Kaiserslautern games / 41 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 48% | Draw 28% | VfL Bochum 24%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | VfL Bochum 4.17. 1. FC Kaiserslautern hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Kaiserslautern offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 20% | VfL Bochum 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Fritz-Walter-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 48% | Draw 28% | VfL Bochum 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.36 / VfL Bochum 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.931 / def 0.683 | VfL Bochum attack 0.960 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Expected Goals
0.88
VfL Bochum xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum kick off?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum?
1. FC Kaiserslautern 2 - 0 VfL Bochum.
Where is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum part of?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 48% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Kaiserslautern the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both 1. FC Kaiserslautern and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and VfL Bochum?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1W | Draws 0 | VfL Bochum 1W.
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and VfL Bochum in?
1. FC Kaiserslautern (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. VfL Bochum (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack rating (0.93) and VfL Bochum's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Bochum's attack versus 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Kaiserslautern Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.61
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Total xG
2.25
0.88
VfL Bochum xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
6%
16.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 0.88 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Kaiserslautern come into this having played 41 games, going 19W 7D 15L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfL Bochum sit at 1.24 PPG from 41 outings (13W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfL Bochum, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Kaiserslautern on 1.56 PPG, VfL Bochum on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home form reads 13W 2D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — 1. FC Kaiserslautern are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, VfL Bochum have taken 1.05 points per game from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Kaiserslautern come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Kaiserslautern are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.32 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Bochum in 63%.
Last 41 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Early Season
VfL Bochum
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 19W 7D 15L in their last 41 games (1.56 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 13W 12D 16L in their last 41 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home or VfL Bochum away?
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home: 2.05 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 1.05 PPG.
Have 1. FC Kaiserslautern or VfL Bochum been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, VfL Bochum in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
1. FC Kaiserslautern's record when hosting VfL Bochum specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
1. FC Kaiserslautern
0
Draws
1
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and VfL Bochum?
From 3 meetings on record, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 2, VfL Bochum have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Kaiserslautern and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-0 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and VfL Bochum?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 50%, VfL Bochum 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (1. FC Kaiserslautern) and 50% (VfL Bochum). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Kaiserslautern keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Kaiserslautern home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Kaiserslautern play VfL Bochum?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's games and 70% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's matches and 50% of VfL Bochum's.
Do 1. FC Kaiserslautern and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Kaiserslautern cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over VfL Bochum.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Kaiserslautern beat VfL Bochum 2-0 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.36 xG and VfL Bochum 0.88 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. VfL Bochum landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.93 / defence 0.68 against VfL Bochum attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Kaiserslautern 48% | Draw 28% | VfL Bochum 24%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Kaiserslautern 56%, VfL Bochum 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.56 PPG, VfL Bochum 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Kaiserslautern win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.