Toulouse 1-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Toulouse welcome Rodez to Stadium de Toulouse. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's home record at Stadium de Toulouse: 5W 2D 1L from 8 Ligue 2 appearances (2.12 PPG). They are averaging 2.75 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.12 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Toulouse are significantly better at Stadium de Toulouse than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's away record: 4W 1D 4L from 9 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 1.60 PPG versus Rodez's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Toulouse trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Rodez trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 53% versus Rodez 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 59% | Rodez 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.71 xG and Rodez 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.724 / defence 1.236 | Rodez attack 0.900 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 1.040. Toulouse carry an above-average attack strength of 1.724 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 Toulouse games / 17 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 50% | Draw 24% | Rodez 26%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Rodez 3.85. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 62% | Rodez 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Monday 13 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 50% | Draw 24% | Rodez 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Toulouse 1.71 / Rodez 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.724 / def 1.236 | Rodez attack 0.900 / def 1.013 | league avg home 0.979 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Rodez xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Rodez kick off?
Toulouse vs Rodez kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 13 December 2021 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Rodez?
Toulouse 1 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Toulouse vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Rodez part of?
Toulouse vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 50% chance of winning, Rodez a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Toulouse and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Rodez?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Toulouse and Rodez in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Rodez (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Toulouse's attacking strength (1.72x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.18
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.87
1.16
Rodez xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
5%
21.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.16 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse come into this having played 17 games, going 9W 6D 2L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Rodez — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Toulouse's home form reads 5W 2D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.62 points per game from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.12 scored and 0.94 conceded. Toulouse's scoring rate against Rodez's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 29%.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Rodez in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Rodez in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 9W 6D 2L in their last 17 games (1.94 PPG), while Rodez have gone 7W 4D 6L in their last 17 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Rodez away?
Toulouse's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.12 PPG; Rodez away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Rodez in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Toulouse and Rodez runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Toulouse
1
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Rodez?
From 2 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 0, Rodez have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2022, when Rodez 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 62%, Rodez 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Toulouse) and 25% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Rodez in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Toulouse's recent matches and 38% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Toulouse's recent games and 25% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Rodez tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rodez in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 18, as Toulouse and Rodez drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.71 xG and Rodez 1.16 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.72 / defence 1.24 against Rodez attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 50% | Draw 24% | Rodez 26%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 59%, Rodez 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.