Toulouse 4-1 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Dijon travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse at Stadium de Toulouse this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Toulouse are significantly better at Stadium de Toulouse than their overall form suggests.
Dijon — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dijon have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Toulouse 1.50 PPG, Dijon 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Toulouse, 0 for Dijon and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 4–2 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Dijon in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 54% versus Dijon 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 54% | Dijon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.73 xG and Dijon 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.485 / defence 1.146 | Dijon attack 1.067 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 0.983 / away 1.016. Toulouse carry an above-average attack strength of 1.485 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 22 Toulouse games / 22 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 48% | Draw 25% | Dijon 27%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Dijon 3.70. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 60% | Dijon 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 48% | Draw 25% | Dijon 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Toulouse 1.73 / Dijon 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.485 / def 1.146 | Dijon attack 1.067 / def 1.183 | league avg home 0.983 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Dijon xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Dijon kick off?
Toulouse vs Dijon kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Dijon?
Toulouse 4 - 1 Dijon.
Where is Toulouse vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Dijon part of?
Toulouse vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 48% chance of winning, Dijon a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Toulouse and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Dijon?
Record (1 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 0 | Dijon 0W.
What form are Toulouse and Dijon in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Dijon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Toulouse's attack rating (1.49) and Dijon's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
48%
2.09
25%
3.95
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.97
1.24
Dijon xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
5%
20.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.24 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse come into this having played 22 games, going 11W 9D 2L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (9W 2D 11L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Dijon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Toulouse's home form reads 6W 3D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (4W 0D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.27 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Dijon in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 11W 9D 2L in their last 22 games (1.91 PPG), while Dijon have gone 9W 2D 11L in their last 22 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Dijon away?
Toulouse's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.10 PPG; Dijon away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Dijon in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Toulouse and Dijon runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Toulouse
0
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Dijon?
From 2 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Dijon have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Toulouse 4-1 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Dijon?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 60%, Dijon 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Toulouse) and 50% (Dijon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Dijon in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Toulouse's recent matches and 40% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Toulouse's matches and 50% of Dijon's.
Do Toulouse and Dijon tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Dijon in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dijon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Dijon 4-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.73 xG and Dijon 1.24 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.49 / defence 1.15 against Dijon attack 1.07 / defence 1.18, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 48% | Draw 25% | Dijon 27%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 54%, Dijon 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Dijon's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.60 average — above their attacking norm. Dijon (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.