Sochaux 0-1 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sochaux vs Nimes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sochaux host Nimes at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sochaux — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sochaux at Stade Auguste-Bonal this season: 4W 2D 1L from 7 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Bonal. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Nimes have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes's away record: 2W 2D 3L from 7 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.14 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Sochaux are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Sochaux trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Nimes trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 29% versus Nimes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sochaux 21% | Nimes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.09 xG and Nimes 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.850 / defence 0.861 | Nimes attack 0.986 / defence 1.427. League average goals — home 0.902 / away 1.013. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.427 — this is suppressing Sochaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Sochaux games / 14 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 40% | Draw 32% | Nimes 28%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Nimes 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sochaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 14% | Nimes 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 40% | Draw 32% | Nimes 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Sochaux 1.09 / Nimes 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.850 / def 0.861 | Nimes attack 0.986 / def 1.427 | league avg home 0.902 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Nimes xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Nimes kick off?
Sochaux vs Nimes kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Nimes?
Sochaux 0 - 1 Nimes.
Where is Sochaux vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Nimes part of?
Sochaux vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 40% chance of winning, Nimes a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sochaux and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Nimes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sochaux and Nimes in?
Sochaux (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Nimes (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sochaux's attack at 0.85x the league average against Nimes's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Sochaux's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
40%
2.48
32%
3.16
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Sochaux xG
Total xG
1.95
0.86
Nimes xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.86 for Nimes, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, Sochaux have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 8W 4D 2L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nimes's form line: 3W 5D 6L from 14 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sochaux are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nimes.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sochaux have posted 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L).
On the road, Nimes have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sochaux are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.14 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sochaux have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Nimes in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 8W 4D 2L in their last 14 games (2.00 PPG), while Nimes have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Nimes away?
Sochaux's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 2.00 PPG; Nimes away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Nimes in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sochaux and Nimes runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sochaux's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sochaux
0
Draws
2
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Nimes?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 2, Nimes have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2023, when Nimes 3-1 Sochaux.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nimes see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 14%, Nimes 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Sochaux and 57% for Nimes.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Sochaux have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Nimes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Sochaux's recent matches and 57% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sochaux's recent games and 57% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Nimes tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Nimes in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nimes defy the odds to beat Sochaux 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Sochaux 0-1 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.09 xG and Nimes 0.86 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sochaux fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 0.85 / defence 0.86 against Nimes attack 0.99 / defence 1.43, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 40% | Draw 32% | Nimes 28%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Nimes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 21%, Nimes 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nimes's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Nimes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sochaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Nimes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.