Sochaux 0-2 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sochaux vs Dijon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Bonal plays host to Sochaux versus Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Sochaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sochaux at Stade Auguste-Bonal this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sochaux are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Bonal than their overall form suggests.
Dijon have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dijon away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sochaux have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dijon in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sochaux, 0 for Dijon and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Sochaux winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sochaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 50% versus Dijon 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sochaux 46% | Dijon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.96 xG and Dijon 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 1.288 / defence 1.026 | Dijon attack 0.881 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.091. Sochaux carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Sochaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Sochaux games / 70 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 60% | Draw 23% | Dijon 18%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Dijon 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Sochaux (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 60% | Dijon 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 60% | Draw 23% | Dijon 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Sochaux 1.96 / Dijon 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 1.288 / def 1.026 | Dijon attack 0.881 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Dijon xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Dijon kick off?
Sochaux vs Dijon kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 1 May 2023 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Dijon?
Sochaux 0 - 2 Dijon.
Where is Sochaux vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Dijon part of?
Sochaux vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 60% chance of winning, Dijon a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sochaux and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Dijon?
Record (3 meetings): Sochaux 2W | Draws 1 | Dijon 0W.
What form are Sochaux and Dijon in?
Sochaux (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Dijon (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sochaux's attack rating (1.29) and Dijon's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.88x) against Sochaux's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.41
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.95
0.99
Dijon xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
2%
40.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.99 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Dijon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 70 outings, Sochaux have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 34W 19D 17L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Dijon's form line: 20W 18D 32L from 70 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Sochaux are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dijon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sochaux have posted 1.97 PPG from 34 outings (19W 10D 5L).
On the road, Dijon have gone 6W 9D 19L from 34 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sochaux are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.10 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Current Season
Dijon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Dijon in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 34W 19D 17L in their last 70 games (1.73 PPG), while Dijon have gone 20W 18D 32L in their last 70 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Dijon away?
Sochaux's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.97 PPG; Dijon away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Dijon in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sochaux
1
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 2, Dijon have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2023, when Sochaux 0-2 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Dijon?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 50%, Dijon 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Sochaux) and 59% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Dijon in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sochaux's recent matches and 59% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Sochaux's recent games and 59% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Dijon tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Dijon in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dijon cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sochaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Sochaux 0-2 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.96 xG and Dijon 0.99 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sochaux fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Dijon outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 1.29 / defence 1.03 against Dijon attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 60% | Draw 23% | Dijon 18%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Dijon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 46%, Dijon 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Dijon's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Dijon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sochaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dijon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.