Sochaux 5-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sochaux at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sochaux vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Annecy travel to Stade Auguste-Bonal to take on Sochaux. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sochaux — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sochaux's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Bonal this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Sochaux are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Bonal than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sochaux at 1.70 PPG versus Annecy's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sochaux, 1 for Annecy and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Annecy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sochaux in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Annecy in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 50% versus Annecy 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sochaux 58% | Annecy 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.83 xG and Annecy 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 1.299 / defence 0.948 | Annecy attack 1.079 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.005. Sochaux carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Annecy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Sochaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Sochaux games / 24 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 55% | Draw 25% | Annecy 20%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Annecy 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sochaux (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sochaux are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Sochaux 60% | Annecy 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 55% | Draw 25% | Annecy 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Sochaux 1.83 / Annecy 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 1.299 / def 0.948 | Annecy attack 1.079 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Annecy xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Annecy kick off?
Sochaux vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Annecy?
Sochaux 5 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Sochaux vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Annecy part of?
Sochaux vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 55% chance of winning, Annecy a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sochaux and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): Sochaux 0W | Draws 0 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Sochaux and Annecy in?
Sochaux (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Annecy (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sochaux's attack at 1.30x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Sochaux's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
55%
1.82
25%
3.95
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.85
1.03
Annecy xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
16%
6.21
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
3%
31.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Sochaux and 1.03 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Annecy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Sochaux have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 12W 5D 7L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy's form line: 8W 8D 8L from 24 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sochaux on 1.71 PPG, Annecy on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sochaux have posted 2.00 PPG from 12 outings (7W 3D 2L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 2W 6D 4L from 12 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sochaux are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.12 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Annecy in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Annecy in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 12W 5D 7L in their last 24 games (1.71 PPG), while Annecy have gone 8W 8D 8L in their last 24 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Annecy away?
Sochaux's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 2.00 PPG; Annecy away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Annecy in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sochaux and Annecy runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sochaux
0
Draws
1
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Annecy?
From 2 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 1, Annecy have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Sochaux 5-1 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 50%, Annecy 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sochaux) and 42% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Annecy in 33%; Annecy in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sochaux's recent matches and 42% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Sochaux's recent games and 42% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Annecy tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Annecy in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sochaux run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Annecy 5-1 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.83 xG and Annecy 1.03 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Sochaux beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 1.30 / defence 0.95 against Annecy attack 1.08 / defence 1.24, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 55% | Draw 25% | Annecy 20%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 58%, Annecy 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sochaux 1.71 PPG, Annecy 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sochaux win broke the near-deadlock. Sochaux (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.