Sochaux 0-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sochaux vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Bonal plays host to Sochaux versus Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 13 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sochaux have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sochaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sochaux at Stade Auguste-Bonal this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Amiens away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Sochaux's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sochaux lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Sochaux — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Amiens — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 45% versus Amiens 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sochaux 32% | Amiens 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.30 xG and Amiens 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.976 / defence 0.868 | Amiens attack 0.862 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.061 / away 0.986. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Sochaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Sochaux games / 40 Amiens games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sochaux 49% | Draw 31% | Amiens 20%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Amiens 5.00. Sochaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sochaux are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Sochaux 50% | Amiens 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 49% | Draw 31% | Amiens 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Sochaux 1.30 / Amiens 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.976 / def 0.868 | Amiens attack 0.862 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.061 / away 0.986 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Amiens xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Amiens kick off?
Sochaux vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Amiens?
Sochaux 0 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Sochaux vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Amiens part of?
Sochaux vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 49% chance of winning, Amiens a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sochaux and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Amiens?
Record (2 meetings): Sochaux 0W | Draws 2 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Sochaux and Amiens in?
Sochaux (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Amiens (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sochaux's attack rating (0.98) and Amiens's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.86x) against Sochaux's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
49%
2.04
31%
3.23
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.04
0.74
Amiens xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
5%
18.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.5 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.74 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sochaux's recent record stands at 19W 13D 8L from 40 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sochaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 10W 17D 13L across 40 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sochaux by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Amiens heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sochaux have managed 10W 7D 2L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Amiens's away record stands at 2W 11D 6L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sochaux are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.10 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Amiens in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Early Season
Amiens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Amiens in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 19W 13D 8L in their last 40 games (1.75 PPG), while Amiens have gone 10W 17D 13L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Amiens away?
Sochaux's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.95 PPG; Amiens away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Amiens in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Amiens go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sochaux
2
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 0, Amiens have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Amiens 1-0 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Amiens?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 42%, Amiens 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Sochaux and 26% for Amiens.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Amiens in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sochaux's recent matches and 53% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Sochaux's recent games and 26% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Amiens tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Amiens in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Amiens defy the odds to beat Sochaux 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Sochaux 0-1 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.30 xG and Amiens 0.74 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sochaux fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 0.98 / defence 0.87 against Amiens attack 0.86 / defence 1.26, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 49% | Draw 31% | Amiens 20%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Amiens win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 32%, Amiens 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Amiens's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Amiens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sochaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.