Saint Etienne 2-2 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Saint Etienne (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Saint Etienne face Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Bastia meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bastia (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Saint Etienne's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Bastia's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Saint Etienne lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 4–0 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 57% versus Bastia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 61% | Bastia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.72 xG and Bastia 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.438 / defence 1.170 | Bastia attack 0.517 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.172. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.438 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 Saint Etienne games / 49 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 62% | Draw 23% | Bastia 15%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Bastia 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 80% | Bastia 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 62% | Draw 23% | Bastia 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 42% | xG Saint Etienne 1.72 / Bastia 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.438 / def 1.170 | Bastia attack 0.517 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Bastia xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Bastia kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Bastia?
Saint Etienne 2 - 2 Bastia.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Bastia part of?
Saint Etienne vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 62% chance of winning, Bastia a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Saint Etienne and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Bastia?
Record (4 meetings): Saint Etienne 3W | Draws 0 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Bastia in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Bastia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.44x the league average against Bastia's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.52x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 16/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.29
15%
6.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.43
0.71
Bastia xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
6.66
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
3%
37.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.71 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Bastia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 17W 8D 24L from 49 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 12W 19D 18L across 49 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.12 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 10W 4D 10L from 24 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 2W 9D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.00 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Bastia in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 17W 8D 24L in their last 49 games (1.20 PPG), while Bastia have gone 12W 19D 18L in their last 49 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Bastia away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.42 PPG; Bastia away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Bastia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 5-0 on 30 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Bastia?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 3, Bastia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bastia 2-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Bastia?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 62%, Bastia 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Saint Etienne) and 21% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Bastia in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 29% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 21% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Bastia tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Bastia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne and Bastia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 17, as Saint Etienne and Bastia drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.72 xG and Bastia 0.71 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bastia outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.44 / defence 1.17 against Bastia attack 0.52 / defence 0.96, drawn from 16/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 62% | Draw 23% | Bastia 15%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 61%, Bastia 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.20 PPG, Bastia 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.54 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.