Saint Etienne 0-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to face Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Saint Etienne (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Amiens have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Amiens arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Saint Etienne, 1 for Amiens and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Amiens winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 54% versus Amiens 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 48% | Amiens 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.16 xG and Amiens 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.944 / defence 0.980 | Amiens attack 0.827 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.132. Data: 59 Saint Etienne games / 59 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 41% | Draw 30% | Amiens 29%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Amiens 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amiens (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 40% | Amiens 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 41% | Draw 30% | Amiens 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Saint Etienne 1.16 / Amiens 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.944 / def 0.980 | Amiens attack 0.827 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Amiens xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Amiens kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Amiens kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Saint Etienne 0 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Amiens part of?
Saint Etienne vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 41% chance of winning, Amiens a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Saint Etienne and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Amiens?
Record (3 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 1 | Amiens 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Amiens in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Amiens (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.94x the league average against Amiens's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.83x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.35
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.08
0.92
Amiens xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.92 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Saint Etienne come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 16D 19L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.32 PPG from 59 outings (21W 15D 23L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.32 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Saint Etienne's home form reads 14W 6D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.11 points per game from 28 outings (8W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.98 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Amiens in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 24W 16D 19L in their last 59 games (1.49 PPG), while Amiens have gone 21W 15D 23L in their last 59 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Amiens away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.71 PPG; Amiens away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Amiens in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Saint Etienne have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 5-0 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Amiens?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 3, Amiens have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Saint Etienne 5-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Amiens?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 43%, Amiens 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Saint Etienne) and 43% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Amiens in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 46% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 43% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Amiens tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Amiens in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Amiens defy the odds to beat Saint Etienne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Saint Etienne 0-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.16 xG and Amiens 0.92 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Saint Etienne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Amiens attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 41% | Draw 30% | Amiens 29%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 48%, Amiens 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.49 PPG, Amiens 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.