Rodez 1-0 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Nimes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Rodez welcome Nimes to Stade Paul Lignon. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rodez — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez at Stade Paul Lignon this season: 2W 3D 2L from 7 home games — 1.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nimes stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.38 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Rodez have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Rodez in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Nimes in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 31% versus Nimes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 31% | Nimes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.12 xG and Nimes 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.956 / defence 1.129 | Nimes attack 0.990 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 0.911 / away 0.975. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Rodez games / 16 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 36% | Draw 29% | Nimes 35%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Nimes 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 29% | Nimes 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 36% | Draw 29% | Nimes 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Rodez 1.12 / Nimes 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.956 / def 1.129 | Nimes attack 0.990 / def 1.280 | league avg home 0.911 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Rodez (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Nimes xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Nimes kick off?
Rodez vs Nimes kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Nimes?
Rodez 1 - 0 Nimes.
Where is Rodez vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Nimes part of?
Rodez vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 36% chance of winning, Nimes a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Rodez and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Nimes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and Nimes in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Nimes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rodez's attack rating (0.96) and Nimes's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
36%
2.77
29%
3.44
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.21
1.09
Nimes xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rodez and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Rodez and 1.09 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 6W 4D 6L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nimes's form line: 5W 5D 6L from 16 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.38 PPG, Nimes on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
On the road, Nimes have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.19 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Nimes in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Nimes have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Nimes away?
Nimes's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.29 PPG; Nimes away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Rodez or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Nimes in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rodez's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rodez
1
Draws
2
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Nimes?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Nimes have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Rodez 1-1 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Nimes?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Nimes see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 29%, Nimes 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Rodez) and 57% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Nimes in 43%; Rodez have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Nimes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Rodez's recent matches and 43% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Rodez's recent games and 57% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Nimes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Nimes 1-0 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.12 xG and Nimes 1.09 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nimes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.96 / defence 1.13 against Nimes attack 0.99 / defence 1.28, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 36% | Draw 29% | Nimes 35%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 31%, Nimes 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nimes's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.38 PPG, Nimes 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Nimes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.