Rodez 2-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Rodez take on Estac Troyes.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Paul-Lignon to take on Rodez. The game is scheduled for Monday 13 April 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rodez at Stade Paul-Lignon this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Paul-Lignon this season.
Estac Troyes — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Rodez are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Rodez: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Estac Troyes, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Rodez and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 70% versus Estac Troyes 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 54% | Estac Troyes 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.05 xG and Estac Troyes 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.949 / defence 0.845 | Estac Troyes attack 1.016 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.143. Data: 63 Rodez games / 63 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 34% | Draw 35% | Estac Troyes 31%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Estac Troyes 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Rodez 80% | Estac Troyes 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Monday 13 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 34% | Draw 35% | Estac Troyes 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Rodez 1.05 / Estac Troyes 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.949 / def 0.845 | Estac Troyes attack 1.016 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Estac Troyes xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Rodez vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 13 April 2026 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Estac Troyes?
Rodez 2 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Rodez vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Estac Troyes part of?
Rodez vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 34% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Rodez and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Estac Troyes?
Record (5 meetings): Rodez 4W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Rodez and Estac Troyes in?
Rodez (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rodez's attack at 0.95x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
35%
2.87
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.03
0.98
Estac Troyes xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Rodez and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Rodez and 0.98 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rodez's recent record stands at 20W 24D 19L from 63 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 30W 12D 21L across 63 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.33 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 11W 12D 8L from 31 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 11W 7D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.38 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Estac Troyes in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 20W 24D 19L in their last 63 games (1.33 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 30W 12D 21L in their last 63 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Estac Troyes away?
Rodez's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.45 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Rodez or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Estac Troyes runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Rodez won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Rodez
1
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Rodez have won 5, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Rodez 2-1 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Estac Troyes?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 71%, Estac Troyes 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Rodez) and 48% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 36%; Estac Troyes in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Rodez's games and 42% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Rodez's recent games and 48% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Estac Troyes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Estac Troyes 2-1 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.05 xG and Estac Troyes 0.98 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.95 / defence 0.84 against Estac Troyes attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 34% | Draw 35% | Estac Troyes 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 54%, Estac Troyes 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.33 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.