Rodez 0-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Dunkerque travel to Stade Paul Lignon to take on Rodez. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez at Stade Paul Lignon this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Rodez) versus 1.40 (Dunkerque). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Rodez, 1 for Dunkerque and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Rodez winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rodez in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 78% versus Dunkerque 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 70% | Dunkerque 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.67 xG and Dunkerque 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.244 / defence 1.107 | Dunkerque attack 0.997 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.110. Data: 60 Rodez games / 23 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 48% | Draw 24% | Dunkerque 28%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Dunkerque 3.57. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Dunkerque 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 48% | Draw 24% | Dunkerque 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Rodez 1.67 / Dunkerque 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.244 / def 1.107 | Dunkerque attack 0.997 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Rodez (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Dunkerque xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Dunkerque kick off?
Rodez vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Rodez 0 - 0 Dunkerque.
Where is Rodez vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Dunkerque part of?
Rodez vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 48% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rodez and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Dunkerque?
Record (3 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 1 | Dunkerque 1W.
What form are Rodez and Dunkerque in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rodez's attack at 1.24x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.15
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.90
1.22
Dunkerque xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
5%
18.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Rodez and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Rodez and 1.22 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rodez's recent record stands at 8W 7D 8L from 23 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 12L across 23 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.35 PPG, Dunkerque on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 6W 3D 2L from 11 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Rodez are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 4W 3D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.87 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 8W 7D 8L in their last 23 games (1.35 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 6W 5D 12L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Dunkerque away?
Rodez's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.91 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2025, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rodez
4
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Dunkerque?
From 8 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Dunkerque have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 73%, Dunkerque 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Rodez) and 46% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Rodez's games and 46% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Rodez's recent games and 46% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rodez's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 24, as Rodez and Dunkerque drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.67 xG and Dunkerque 1.22 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rodez fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Dunkerque landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.24 / defence 1.11 against Dunkerque attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 48% | Draw 24% | Dunkerque 28%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 70%, Dunkerque 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Dunkerque's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.35 PPG, Dunkerque 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.