Rodez 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rodez (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rodez face Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul-Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Paul-Lignon this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Paul-Lignon this season.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Rodez's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Bastia's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Rodez 4W, Bastia 2W, 3D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2025, ended 3–2 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 70% versus Bastia 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 57% | Bastia 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.05 xG and Bastia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.985 / defence 0.808 | Bastia attack 0.832 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.173. Data: 61 Rodez games / 60 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 41% | Draw 33% | Bastia 27%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Bastia 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 70% | Bastia 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 41% | Draw 33% | Bastia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Rodez 1.05 / Bastia 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.985 / def 0.808 | Bastia attack 0.832 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Rodez (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Bastia xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Bastia kick off?
Rodez vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 March 2026 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Bastia?
Rodez 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Rodez vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Bastia part of?
Rodez vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 41% chance of winning, Bastia a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Rodez and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Bastia?
Record (9 meetings): Rodez 4W | Draws 3 | Bastia 2W.
What form are Rodez and Bastia in?
Rodez (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Bastia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rodez's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.83x) against Rodez's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
41%
2.47
33%
3.04
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Rodez xG
Total xG
1.84
0.79
Bastia xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
9%
10.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Rodez and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Rodez and 0.79 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 20W 22D 18L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia's form line: 14W 25D 21L from 60 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Rodez against 1.12 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (11W 11D 8L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 3W 14D 13L from 30 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.95 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bastia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Bastia in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 20W 22D 18L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Bastia have gone 14W 25D 21L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Bastia away?
Rodez's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.47 PPG; Bastia away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Rodez or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Bastia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rodez
4
Draws
2
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 4, Bastia have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Rodez 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Bastia?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 70%, Bastia 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 47% for Rodez and 23% for Bastia.
On the defensive side: Bastia in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Rodez's recent matches and 37% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Rodez's recent games and 23% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Bastia tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bastia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 28, as Rodez and Bastia drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.05 xG and Bastia 0.79 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.98 / defence 0.81 against Bastia attack 0.83 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 41% | Draw 33% | Bastia 27%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 57%, Bastia 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.37 PPG, Bastia 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.