Reims 1-1 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Reims at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Montpellier at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Reims — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reims have posted 3W 6D 1L at Stade Auguste-Delaune — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Auguste-Delaune this season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Montpellier have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Montpellier have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Montpellier away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reims 2.00 PPG, Montpellier 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Reims, 2 for Montpellier and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Reims in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Montpellier in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 58% versus Montpellier 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reims 50% | Montpellier 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.40 xG and Montpellier 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.355 / defence 1.206 | Montpellier attack 0.940 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.178. Reims carry an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — their λ of 1.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Reims games / 40 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 39% | Draw 26% | Montpellier 36%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Montpellier 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Reims 70% | Montpellier 20%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 39% | Draw 26% | Montpellier 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Reims 1.40 / Montpellier 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.355 / def 1.206 | Montpellier attack 0.940 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Reims (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Montpellier xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Montpellier kick off?
Reims vs Montpellier kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Montpellier?
Reims 1 - 1 Montpellier.
Where is Reims vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Montpellier part of?
Reims vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 39% chance of winning, Montpellier a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Reims and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Montpellier?
Record (9 meetings): Reims 3W | Draws 4 | Montpellier 2W.
What form are Reims and Montpellier in?
Reims (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Montpellier (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reims's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.87
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Reims xG
Total xG
2.74
1.34
Montpellier xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
9%
11.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Reims and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Reims and 1.34 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Reims have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 17W 17D 6L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Montpellier's form line: 17W 11D 12L from 40 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Montpellier, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.70 PPG, Montpellier on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.85 PPG from 20 outings (10W 7D 3L).
On the road, Montpellier have gone 8W 5D 7L from 20 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.15 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Montpellier in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Montpellier
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 17W 17D 6L in their last 40 games (1.70 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 17W 11D 12L in their last 40 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Montpellier away?
Reims's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.85 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Reims or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Montpellier in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Montpellier runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Reims's record when hosting Montpellier specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Reims
5
Draws
2
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Montpellier?
From 10 meetings on record, Reims have won 3, Montpellier have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Reims 1-1 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Montpellier?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Montpellier see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 55%, Montpellier 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 55% for Reims and 15% for Montpellier.
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Montpellier in 45%; Montpellier in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Reims's recent matches and 25% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Reims's recent games and 15% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Montpellier tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims and Montpellier share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims and Montpellier finished level at 1-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.40 xG and Montpellier 1.34 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.35 / defence 1.21 against Montpellier attack 0.94 / defence 0.82, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 39% | Draw 26% | Montpellier 36%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 50%, Montpellier 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Montpellier's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.70 PPG, Montpellier 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reims (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.