RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 host Saint Etienne at Stade Bauer in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RED Star FC 93 stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93's home record at Stade Bauer: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — RED Star FC 93 at 1.50 PPG versus Saint Etienne's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for RED Star FC 93, 1 for Saint Etienne and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
RED Star FC 93 in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 51% versus Saint Etienne 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 51% | Saint Etienne 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.16 xG and Saint Etienne 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.942 / defence 1.207 | Saint Etienne attack 1.254 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.274. Saint Etienne have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 RED Star FC 93 games / 38 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 20% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 53%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | Saint Etienne 1.89. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 60% | Saint Etienne 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 20% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.16 / Saint Etienne 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.942 / def 1.207 | Saint Etienne attack 1.254 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Saint Etienne xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stade Bauer.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 20% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne?
Record (2 meetings): RED Star FC 93 1W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (0.94) and Saint Etienne's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
20%
4.91
27%
3.75
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
3.09
1.93
Saint Etienne xG
4.91
20%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
15%
6.88
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
3%
33.80
17%
6.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.93 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 17W 12D 10L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Saint Etienne's form line: 21W 7D 11L from 39 games, 1.79 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.62 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (7W 8D 4L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 9W 3D 7L from 19 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.69 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Saint Etienne in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
Saint Etienne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 17W 12D 10L in their last 39 games (1.62 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 21W 7D 11L in their last 39 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.53 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.58 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
1
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne?
From 2 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Saint Etienne 2-0 RED Star FC 93.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 58%, Saint Etienne 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (RED Star FC 93) and 53% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 37%; RED Star FC 93 have failed to score in 26% of games; Saint Etienne in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 42% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 53% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.