RED Star FC 93 1-4 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as RED Star FC 93 take on Reims.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Reims travel to Stade Bauer to take on RED Star FC 93. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RED Star FC 93 stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stade Bauer — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Reims — All Games: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Reims have posted 2W 7D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RED Star FC 93 1.60 PPG, Reims 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for RED Star FC 93, 1 for Reims and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Reims winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
RED Star FC 93 in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Reims in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 49% versus Reims 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 49% | Reims 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 0.94 xG and Reims 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.949 / defence 0.945 | Reims attack 0.920 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.114. Data: 36 RED Star FC 93 games / 37 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 32% | Draw 35% | Reims 33%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Reims 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 50% | Reims 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 32% | Draw 35% | Reims 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG RED Star FC 93 0.94 / Reims 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.949 / def 0.945 | Reims attack 0.920 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Reims xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Reims kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Reims kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Stade Bauer.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Reims?
RED Star FC 93 1 - 4 Reims.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Reims part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Reims is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 32% chance of winning, Reims a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Reims?
Record (2 meetings): RED Star FC 93 0W | Draws 1 | Reims 1W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Reims in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Reims (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates RED Star FC 93's attack at 0.95x the league average against Reims's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.13
35%
2.88
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
1.91
0.97
Reims xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 0.97 for Reims, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RED Star FC 93's recent record stands at 16W 12D 9L from 37 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 6L across 37 games — 1.65 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.62 PPG, Reims on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, RED Star FC 93 have managed 7W 8D 3L from 18 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 5W 10D 3L across 18 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.59 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Reims in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
Reims
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Reims in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 16W 12D 9L in their last 37 games (1.62 PPG), while Reims have gone 15W 16D 6L in their last 37 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Reims away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.61 PPG; Reims away: 1.39 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Reims in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RED Star FC 93 and Reims runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reims have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Reims won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RED Star FC 93's record when hosting Reims specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
RED Star FC 93
1
Draws
2
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Reims?
From 3 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 0, Reims have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when RED Star FC 93 1-4 Reims.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 56%, Reims 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RED Star FC 93) and 39% (Reims).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Reims in 39%; RED Star FC 93 have failed to score in 28% of games; Reims in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of RED Star FC 93's games and 56% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 39% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Reims tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Reims in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Reims run riot with a 1-4 hammering of RED Star FC 93.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat RED Star FC 93 1-4 at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 0.94 xG and Reims 0.97 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Reims outscored their 0.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Reims attack 0.92 / defence 0.86, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 32% | Draw 35% | Reims 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 49%, Reims 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Reims's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.62 PPG, Reims 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.