Quevilly 1-0 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Grenoble in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 5 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Quevilly have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stade Robert Diochon — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Grenoble have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Grenoble have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Quevilly, 1 for Grenoble and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Grenoble winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Quevilly — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Grenoble — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 52% versus Grenoble 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 57% | Grenoble 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.05 xG and Grenoble 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.888 / defence 1.269 | Grenoble attack 0.584 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 0.997 / away 1.013. Data: 22 Quevilly games / 21 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 41% | Draw 34% | Grenoble 25%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Grenoble 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Grenoble's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 60% | Grenoble 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 41% | Draw 34% | Grenoble 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Quevilly 1.05 / Grenoble 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.888 / def 1.269 | Grenoble attack 0.584 / def 1.186 | league avg home 0.997 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Grenoble xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Grenoble kick off?
Quevilly vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Grenoble?
Quevilly 1 - 0 Grenoble.
Where is Quevilly vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Grenoble part of?
Quevilly vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 41% chance of winning, Grenoble a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Quevilly and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Grenoble?
Record (1 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 0 | Grenoble 1W.
What form are Quevilly and Grenoble in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Grenoble (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (0.89) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (0.58x) against Quevilly's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
41%
2.44
34%
2.93
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Quevilly xG
Total xG
1.80
0.75
Grenoble xG
2.44
41%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.75 for Grenoble, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 6D 9L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 1.05 PPG from 21 outings (6W 4D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Quevilly against 1.05 for Grenoble. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Quevilly's home form reads 2W 5D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Grenoble have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grenoble's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.81 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 games (1.14 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Grenoble away?
Quevilly's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.10 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Grenoble in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Quevilly
1
Draws
3
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Grenoble?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Grenoble have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Quevilly 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Grenoble?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 60%, Grenoble 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Quevilly) and 20% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 40% of games; Grenoble in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Quevilly's recent matches and 30% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Quevilly's recent games and 20% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Grenoble tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Quevilly edge out Grenoble 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Grenoble 1-0 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.05 xG and Grenoble 0.75 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.89 / defence 1.27 against Grenoble attack 0.58 / defence 1.19, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 41% | Draw 34% | Grenoble 25%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 57%, Grenoble 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Grenoble's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.14 PPG, Grenoble 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.