Quevilly 0-0 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Quevilly at 40%, yet in-form Bordeaux provide a compelling counter-argument — this Quevilly vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Bordeaux travel to Stade Robert Diochon to take on Quevilly. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Quevilly have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Quevilly's home record at Stade Robert Diochon: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bordeaux — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bordeaux away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bordeaux are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Quevilly have won 0, Bordeaux 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2022, ended 0–4 with Bordeaux winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Bordeaux trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 42% versus Bordeaux 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 42% | Bordeaux 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.33 xG and Bordeaux 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.085 / defence 1.080 | Bordeaux attack 0.993 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.118. Data: 72 Quevilly games / 34 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 40% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 33%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Bordeaux 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bordeaux (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 70% | Bordeaux 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 40% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Quevilly 1.33 / Bordeaux 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.085 / def 1.080 | Bordeaux attack 0.993 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bordeaux xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Bordeaux kick off?
Quevilly vs Bordeaux kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Bordeaux?
Quevilly 0 - 0 Bordeaux.
Where is Quevilly vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Bordeaux part of?
Quevilly vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 40% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Quevilly and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Bordeaux?
Record (1 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 0 | Bordeaux 1W.
What form are Quevilly and Bordeaux in?
Quevilly (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Bordeaux (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Quevilly's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Bordeaux's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.74
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.54
1.20
Bordeaux xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
9%
11.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.20 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 23W 21D 28L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Bordeaux's form line: 25W 21D 26L from 72 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.25 PPG, Bordeaux on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.33 PPG from 36 outings (11W 15D 10L).
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 11W 10D 15L from 36 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Quevilly are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.39 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
Bordeaux
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 23W 21D 28L in their last 72 games (1.25 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 25W 21D 26L in their last 72 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Bordeaux away?
Quevilly's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.33 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2022, when Bordeaux won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Quevilly's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Quevilly
2
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Bordeaux have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Bordeaux 0-0 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 56%, Bordeaux 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Quevilly) and 67% (Bordeaux). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 31% of games; Bordeaux in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Bordeaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Quevilly's games and 56% of Bordeaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Quevilly vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Quevilly's matches and 67% of Bordeaux's.
Do Quevilly and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Quevilly's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 35, as Quevilly and Bordeaux drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.33 xG and Bordeaux 1.20 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Quevilly fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bordeaux landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Bordeaux attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 40% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 33%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 42%, Bordeaux 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bordeaux's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.25 PPG, Bordeaux 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.