PAU 1-0 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 12 as PAU welcome Paris FC to Stade Nouste Camp. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAU — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Paris FC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Paris FC have posted 3W 0D 3L from 6 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (PAU) versus 1.40 (Paris FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 46% versus Paris FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 36% | Paris FC 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.31 xG and Paris FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.030 / defence 1.121 | Paris FC attack 0.967 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 0.927 / away 1.019. Paris FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing PAU's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 PAU games / 11 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 39% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 29%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Paris FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: PAU 50% | Paris FC 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 39% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG PAU 1.31 / Paris FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.030 / def 1.121 | Paris FC attack 0.967 / def 1.375 | league avg home 0.927 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: PAU (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Paris FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Paris FC kick off?
PAU vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Paris FC?
PAU 1 - 0 Paris FC.
Where is PAU vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Paris FC part of?
PAU vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 39% chance of winning, Paris FC a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PAU and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Paris FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAU and Paris FC in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Paris FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAU's attack rating (1.03) and Paris FC's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
39%
2.56
32%
3.12
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
PAU xG
Total xG
2.42
1.10
Paris FC xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
8%
12.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are PAU and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for PAU and 1.10 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAU come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 3D 4L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.36 PPG, Paris FC on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAU's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (3W 0D 3L).
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.27 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Paris FC in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Paris FC away?
PAU's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.67 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Paris FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAU's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAU
3
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Paris FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Paris FC 3-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Paris FC?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 50%, Paris FC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (PAU) and 50% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Paris FC in 33%; Paris FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAU's recent matches and 33% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of PAU's recent games and 50% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Paris FC tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Paris FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Paris FC 1-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.31 xG and Paris FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Paris FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.03 / defence 1.12 against Paris FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.38, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 39% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 29%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 36%, Paris FC 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Paris FC's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.36 PPG, Paris FC 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.