PAU 2-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PAU at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Le Havre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 2 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
PAU (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
PAU at Stade Nouste Camp this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Le Havre's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Le Havre's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for PAU, 0.90 for Le Havre — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for PAU, 1 for Le Havre and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Le Havre winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 40% versus Le Havre 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 37% | Le Havre 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.17 xG and Le Havre 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.936 / defence 1.192 | Le Havre attack 0.920 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 0.913. Le Havre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing PAU's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 PAU games / 30 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 39% | Draw 31% | Le Havre 30%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Le Havre 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 30% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 39% | Draw 31% | Le Havre 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG PAU 1.17 / Le Havre 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.936 / def 1.192 | Le Havre attack 0.920 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.009 / away 0.913 • Poisson stance: PAU (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Le Havre xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Le Havre kick off?
PAU vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Le Havre?
PAU 2 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is PAU vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Le Havre part of?
PAU vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 39% chance of winning, Le Havre a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both PAU and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Le Havre?
Record (1 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are PAU and Le Havre in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Le Havre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAU's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.92x) against PAU's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
39%
2.59
31%
3.23
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
PAU xG
Total xG
2.17
1.00
Le Havre xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are PAU and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for PAU and 1.00 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, PAU have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 11W 6D 13L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Le Havre's form line: 10W 11D 9L from 30 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for PAU against 1.37 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (8W 1D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — PAU are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 5W 6D 3L from 14 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.97 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Le Havre in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 10W 11D 9L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Le Havre away?
PAU's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.79 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.50 PPG.
Have PAU or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Le Havre in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
PAU
1
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Le Havre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when PAU 0-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (PAU) and 36% (Le Havre) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (PAU) and 36% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Le Havre in 43%; Le Havre in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of PAU's recent matches and 36% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of PAU's recent games and 36% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Le Havre tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Le Havre 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Le Havre 2-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.17 xG and Le Havre 1.00 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.94 / defence 1.19 against Le Havre attack 0.92 / defence 1.24, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 39% | Draw 31% | Le Havre 30%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 37%, Le Havre 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.30 PPG, Le Havre 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.