PAU 2-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 2L across 8 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 2L across 8 road games this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (PAU) versus 1.20 (Guingamp). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 40% versus Guingamp 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 33% | Guingamp 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.10 xG and Guingamp 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.011 / defence 0.950 | Guingamp attack 0.910 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 0.997. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing PAU's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 PAU games / 15 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 41% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 28%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Guingamp 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAU 38% | Guingamp 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 41% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG PAU 1.10 / Guingamp 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.011 / def 0.950 | Guingamp attack 0.910 / def 1.214 | league avg home 0.900 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: PAU (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Guingamp xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Guingamp kick off?
PAU vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Guingamp?
PAU 2 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is PAU vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Guingamp part of?
PAU vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 41% chance of winning, Guingamp a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both PAU and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAU and Guingamp in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
PAU's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
41%
2.44
31%
3.24
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
PAU xG
Total xG
1.97
0.86
Guingamp xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are PAU and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for PAU and 0.86 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, PAU have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 6W 3D 6L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 4W 6D 5L from 15 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.40 PPG, Guingamp on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAU have posted 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — PAU are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Guingamp have gone 2W 4D 2L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.20 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Guingamp in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 games (1.40 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 4W 6D 5L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Guingamp away?
PAU's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 2.00 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.25 PPG.
Have PAU or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Guingamp in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Guingamp won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAU
1
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 4, Guingamp have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when PAU 2-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 38%, Guingamp 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (PAU) and 50% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Guingamp in 38%; Guingamp in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of PAU's recent matches and 50% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of PAU's recent games and 50% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Guingamp tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Guingamp 2-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.10 xG and Guingamp 0.86 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guingamp landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.01 / defence 0.95 against Guingamp attack 0.91 / defence 1.21, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 41% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 28%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 33%, Guingamp 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guingamp's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.40 PPG, Guingamp 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.