PAU 2-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PAU and Amiens meet at Stade Nouste Camp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
PAU's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU at Stade Nouste Camp this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Amiens have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Amiens have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for PAU, 0 for Amiens and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 2–1 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PAU — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Amiens — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 45% versus Amiens 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 45% | Amiens 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.24 xG and Amiens 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.955 / defence 1.071 | Amiens attack 0.860 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.051. Data: 51 PAU games / 51 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 42% | Draw 29% | Amiens 29%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Amiens 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: PAU 50% | Amiens 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 42% | Draw 29% | Amiens 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG PAU 1.24 / Amiens 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.955 / def 1.071 | Amiens attack 0.860 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: PAU (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Amiens xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Amiens kick off?
PAU vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Amiens?
PAU 2 - 1 Amiens.
Where is PAU vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Amiens part of?
PAU vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 42% chance of winning, Amiens a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both PAU and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Amiens?
Record (2 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 1 | Amiens 0W.
What form are PAU and Amiens in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Amiens (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.95x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.86x) against PAU's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
42%
2.35
29%
3.48
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
PAU xG
Total xG
2.21
0.97
Amiens xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are PAU and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for PAU and 0.97 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAU come into this having played 51 games, going 18W 12D 21L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.31 PPG from 51 outings (16W 19D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for PAU against 1.31 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
PAU's home form reads 12W 5D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (4W 12D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.14 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Amiens in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 games (1.29 PPG), while Amiens have gone 16W 19D 16L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Amiens away?
PAU's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.64 PPG; Amiens away: 0.96 PPG.
Have PAU or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Amiens in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
PAU
1
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 5, Amiens have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Amiens 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Amiens?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 40%, Amiens 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PAU) and 28% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Amiens in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of PAU's recent matches and 52% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of PAU's recent games and 28% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Amiens tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Amiens in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Amiens 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Amiens 2-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.24 xG and Amiens 0.97 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Amiens attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 42% | Draw 29% | Amiens 29%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 45%, Amiens 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.29 PPG, Amiens 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.