Niort 0-1 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Caen at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Niort vs Caen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Caen travel to Stade René Gaillard to take on Niort. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 July 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Niort have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Niort have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Caen — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 4.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Caen have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Caen's 3.00 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Niort's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Niort's 0% and Caen's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.02 xG and Caen 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.980 / defence 1.150 | Caen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.902 / away 1.365. Data: 1 Niort games / 1 Caen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Niort 25% | Draw 35% | Caen 40%. Fair-value odds: Niort 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | Caen 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Caen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 25% | Draw 35% | Caen 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Niort 1.02 / Caen 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.980 / def 1.150 | Caen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.902 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Caen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Niort xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Caen xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Caen kick off?
Niort vs Caen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Caen?
Niort 0 - 1 Caen.
Where is Niort vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Caen part of?
Niort vs Caen is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 25% chance of winning, Caen a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Niort and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Caen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Niort and Caen in?
Niort (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Caen (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Niort's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Caen's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus Niort's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
25%
4.07
35%
2.83
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Niort xG
Total xG
2.35
1.33
Caen xG
4.07
25%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
6%
15.43
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Niort and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Niort and 1.33 for Caen, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Niort have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Niort, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Caen's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Caen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Caen are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Niort.
Goals in Recent Form
Niort are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 4.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Caen's attacking output running into Niort's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Niort have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Caen in 0%.
Defensively: Niort have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Caen in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Early Season
Caen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Caen in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Caen have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Niort or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Caen in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Caen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Niort's record when hosting Caen specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Niort
0
Draws
3
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Caen?
From 4 meetings on record, Niort have won 1, Caen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Niort 1-2 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Caen?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Niort's recent matches and 0% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Niort's recent games and 100% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Caen tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Caen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Caen edge out Niort 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Niort 0-1 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 1.02 xG and Caen 1.33 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Niort fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Caen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Niort 25% | Draw 35% | Caen 40%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 0%, Caen 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Caen arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Niort shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Caen managed 1 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.