Niort 1-3 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Niort face Amiens.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade René Gaillard to face Niort in Ligue 2 (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Niort (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Niort have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Amiens's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Amiens's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Niort against 1.00 for Amiens. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Niort, 2 for Amiens and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2022, ended Niort 0–3 Amiens — a Amiens win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Niort — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Amiens — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 41% versus Amiens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 43% | Amiens 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 0.93 xG and Amiens 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.839 / defence 1.099 | Amiens attack 1.048 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.068. Data: built from Niort's last 58 games and Amiens's last 58.
Result probabilities: Niort 28% | Draw 30% | Amiens 43%. Fair-value odds: Niort 3.63 | Draw 3.34 | Amiens 2.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Niort 50% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 21 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 January 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 28% | Draw 30% | Amiens 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Niort 0.93 / Amiens 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.839 / def 1.099 | Amiens attack 1.048 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Amiens (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Niort xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Amiens xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Niort vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Niort vs Amiens kick off?
Niort vs Amiens kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Amiens?
Niort 1 - 3 Amiens.
Where is Niort vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Amiens part of?
Niort vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 21) (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 28% chance of winning, Amiens a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Niort and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Niort vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Niort's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (1.05x) against Niort's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Niort's last 58 games and Amiens's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
28%
3.63
30%
3.34
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Niort xG
Total xG
2.16
1.23
Amiens xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
8%
12.41
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.1 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Niort vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Niort and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Niort and 1.23 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Niort's recent record stands at 16W 15D 27L from 58 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 17W 23D 18L across 58 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Niort against 1.28 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Niort have managed 10W 7D 12L from their last 29 home games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Amiens's away record stands at 5W 14D 10L across their last 29 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Niort are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.14 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Blended
Amiens
Blended
Niort (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Niort
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Niort vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Niort and Amiens in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 16W 15D 27L in their last 58 games (1.09 PPG), while Amiens have gone 17W 23D 18L in their last 58 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Amiens away?
Niort's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.28 PPG; Amiens away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Niort or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Amiens in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Niort and Amiens, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 31 January 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Amiens have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won Amiens 3-0 Niort on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Niort have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Niort
1
Draws
3
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Niort vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Amiens?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Niort have won 0, Amiens have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Niort and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2023: Niort 1-3 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Amiens?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Niort see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 41%, Amiens 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Niort and 31% for Amiens.
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Niort have failed to score in 41% of games; Amiens in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Niort vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Niort and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Niort's recent matches and 55% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Niort and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Niort's recent games and 31% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Niort's recent matches and 76% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Niort.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Niort 1-3 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 0.93 xG and Amiens 1.23 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Amiens outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against Amiens attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 28% | Draw 30% | Amiens 43%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 43%, Amiens 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 1.09 PPG, Amiens 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Niort (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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