Nimes 1-3 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nimes vs Sochaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Sochaux travel to Stade des Costières to take on Nimes. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Nimes have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stade des Costières, Nimes have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Nimes are significantly better at Stade des Costières than their overall form suggests.
Sochaux — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sochaux away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Sochaux's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Nimes's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nimes register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Sochaux in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Nimes, 0 for Sochaux and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Nimes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Nimes in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sochaux in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 47% versus Sochaux 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 53% | Sochaux 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.13 xG and Sochaux 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.925 / defence 1.414 | Sochaux attack 1.105 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 0.970. Sochaux bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Nimes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Nimes games / 32 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 27% | Draw 28% | Sochaux 45%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Sochaux 2.22. Sochaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sochaux as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sochaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nimes 80% | Sochaux 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 27% | Draw 28% | Sochaux 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Nimes 1.13 / Sochaux 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.925 / def 1.414 | Sochaux attack 1.105 / def 1.251 | league avg home 0.973 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Sochaux xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Sochaux kick off?
Nimes vs Sochaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Sochaux?
Nimes 1 - 3 Sochaux.
Where is Nimes vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Sochaux part of?
Nimes vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 27% chance of winning, Sochaux a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nimes and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Sochaux?
Record (1 meetings): Nimes 1W | Draws 0 | Sochaux 0W.
What form are Nimes and Sochaux in?
Nimes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Sochaux (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nimes's attack rating (0.93) and Sochaux's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sochaux's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
27%
3.68
28%
3.60
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.64
1.51
Sochaux xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
6%
16.76
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Nimes and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Nimes and 1.51 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Nimes have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 11W 7D 14L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Sochaux's form line: 16W 9D 7L from 32 games, 1.78 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Sochaux are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nimes.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nimes have posted 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L).
On the road, Sochaux have gone 7W 5D 4L from 16 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nimes are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.19 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Current Season
Sochaux
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 games (1.25 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 16W 9D 7L in their last 32 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Sochaux away?
Sochaux's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.19 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Nimes or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sochaux in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Nimes's record when hosting Sochaux specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nimes
0
Draws
2
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Sochaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 2, Sochaux have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2023, when Nimes 3-1 Sochaux.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 62%, Sochaux 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Nimes) and 50% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: Sochaux in 38%; Nimes have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Sochaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Nimes's games and 56% of Sochaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nimes vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Nimes's recent games and 50% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Sochaux tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sochaux cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Nimes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Nimes 1-3 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.13 xG and Sochaux 1.51 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sochaux outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.93 / defence 1.41 against Sochaux attack 1.10 / defence 1.25, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 27% | Draw 28% | Sochaux 45%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 53%, Sochaux 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Sochaux's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Nimes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sochaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.