Nimes 0-0 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Nimes take on Caen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Caen make the trip to Stade des Costières to face Nimes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nimes have collected 2.20 PPG across 5 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Nimes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Caen (all games): 3W 0D 2L across 5 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Caen have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Nimes against 1.80 for Caen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Nimes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Caen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Nimes 40% | Caen 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nimes 40% | Caen 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 0.86 xG and Caen 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.963 / defence 1.018 | Caen attack 0.706 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 0.755 / away 1.209. Data: 5 Nimes games / 5 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 29% | Draw 42% | Caen 29%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 3.45 | Draw 2.38 | Caen 3.45. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nimes 40% | Caen 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 29% | Draw 42% | Caen 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 37% | xG Nimes 0.86 / Caen 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.963 / def 1.018 | Caen attack 0.706 / def 1.182 | league avg home 0.755 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Caen xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Caen kick off?
Nimes vs Caen kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Caen?
Nimes 0 - 0 Caen.
Where is Nimes vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Caen part of?
Nimes vs Caen is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 29% chance of winning, Caen a 29% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Nimes and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Caen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nimes and Caen in?
Nimes (all comps): 3W-2D-0L in 5 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Caen (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nimes's attack rating (0.96) and Caen's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Caen's attack (0.71x) against Nimes's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.46
42%
2.40
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Nimes xG
Total xG
1.73
0.87
Caen xG
3.46
29%
Home win
2.40
42%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 15.4 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Nimes and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Nimes and 0.87 for Caen, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Nimes have picked up 2.20 PPG on a 3W 2D 0L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nimes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Caen's form line: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Caen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Nimes are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Caen.
Attack vs Defence
Nimes are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Caen in 20%.
Defensively: Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Caen in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Early Season
Caen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Caen in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 games (2.20 PPG), while Caen have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have Nimes or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Caen in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Caen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Caen won 4-0 on 12 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nimes have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Caen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nimes
1
Draws
3
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Caen?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 0, Caen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Caen 4-2 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Caen?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nimes see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Nimes) and 20% (Caen) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Nimes) and 40% (Caen).
On the defensive side: Nimes keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Caen in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Nimes's recent matches and 20% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nimes vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Nimes's recent games and 40% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Caen tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Caen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nimes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 6, as Nimes and Caen drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 0.86 xG and Caen 0.87 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nimes fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Caen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.96 / defence 1.02 against Caen attack 0.71 / defence 1.18, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 29% | Draw 42% | Caen 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 40%, Caen 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Caen's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Nimes arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nimes managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Caen managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.