Montpellier 0-0 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Montpellier at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Montpellier vs Boulogne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Montpellier host Boulogne at Stade de la Mosson in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Montpellier stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Montpellier have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Montpellier's home record at Stade de la Mosson: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Boulogne — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Boulogne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Boulogne have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Montpellier have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Montpellier have won 0, Boulogne 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Boulogne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Montpellier in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Boulogne in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 40% versus Boulogne 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Montpellier 27% | Boulogne 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.16 xG and Boulogne 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 1.030 / defence 1.019 | Boulogne attack 0.820 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.132. Data: 37 Montpellier games / 37 Boulogne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Montpellier 40% | Draw 32% | Boulogne 29%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Boulogne 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Montpellier as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Montpellier 70% | Boulogne 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 40% | Draw 32% | Boulogne 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Montpellier 1.16 / Boulogne 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 1.030 / def 1.019 | Boulogne attack 0.820 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Boulogne xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Boulogne kick off?
Montpellier vs Boulogne kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 August 2026 at Stade de la Mosson.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Boulogne?
Montpellier 0 - 0 Boulogne.
Where is Montpellier vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson.
What competition is Montpellier vs Boulogne part of?
Montpellier vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 40% chance of winning, Boulogne a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Montpellier and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Boulogne?
Record (2 meetings): Montpellier 0W | Draws 0 | Boulogne 2W.
What form are Montpellier and Boulogne in?
Montpellier (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Boulogne (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 1.03x the league average against Boulogne's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Boulogne's attack versus Montpellier's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
40%
2.52
32%
3.17
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.10
0.95
Boulogne xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Montpellier and 0.95 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Montpellier come into this having played 37 games, going 16W 10D 11L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Montpellier, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Boulogne sit at 1.03 PPG from 37 outings (9W 11D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Boulogne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Montpellier carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Boulogne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Montpellier's home form reads 8W 5D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Boulogne have taken 1.17 points per game from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Montpellier come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Montpellier are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 0.95 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Early Season
Boulogne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 16W 10D 11L in their last 37 games (1.57 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 9W 11D 17L in their last 37 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Boulogne away?
Montpellier's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.61 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Boulogne in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Montpellier and Boulogne runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Montpellier's record when hosting Boulogne specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Montpellier
1
Draws
2
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Boulogne?
From 3 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 0, Boulogne have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Montpellier 0-0 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Montpellier and Boulogne?
Boulogne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 61%, Boulogne 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Montpellier) and 28% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Boulogne in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Montpellier's recent matches and 39% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Montpellier vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Montpellier's recent games and 28% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Boulogne tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Montpellier's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 4, as Montpellier and Boulogne drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.16 xG and Boulogne 0.95 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Montpellier fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Boulogne landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Boulogne attack 0.82 / defence 0.93, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 40% | Draw 32% | Boulogne 29%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 27%, Boulogne 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Boulogne's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Montpellier arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Boulogne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.