Martigues 0-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Martigues vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Clermont Foot travel to Stade Jean Laville to take on Martigues in Ligue 2 (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Friday 10 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Martigues — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Martigues's home record over their last 9 home games: 0W 1D 8L (0.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.11 lags behind their overall 0.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Clermont Foot stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Clermont Foot are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (from Martigues's last 9 home games and Clermont Foot's last 10 away games). Martigues's 11% and Clermont Foot's 20% BTTS rates are both low — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Martigues have won 1, Clermont Foot 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2024, ended Martigues 1–0 Clermont Foot — a Martigues win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Martigues in-play tendencies (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 65% of games.
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Martigues 29% versus Clermont Foot 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Martigues 47% | Clermont Foot 29%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Martigues surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Clermont Foot have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Martigues 0.57 xG and Clermont Foot 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Martigues attack 0.430 / defence 1.465 | Clermont Foot attack 0.705 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.026. Martigues's attack rating of 0.430 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.57. Clermont Foot's attack rating of 0.705 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Martigues's defence rating of 1.465 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Clermont Foot's projected output up. Data: built from Martigues's last 17 games and Clermont Foot's last 17.
Result probabilities: Martigues 19% | Draw 34% | Clermont Foot 47%. Fair-value odds: Martigues 5.20 | Draw 2.94 | Clermont Foot 2.14. Clermont Foot hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS Yes probability 29% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Martigues's lower xG of 0.57 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.63 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Martigues's last 9 home games and Clermont Foot's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Martigues 11% (last 9 home games) | Clermont Foot 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Martigues vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 18 | Venue: Stade Jean Laville • Kick-off: Friday 10 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Martigues 19% | Draw 34% | Clermont Foot 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% (Under 78%) | BTTS Yes 29% (No 71%) | xG Martigues 0.57 / Clermont Foot 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Martigues attack 0.430 / def 1.465 | Clermont Foot attack 0.705 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.57
Martigues xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Clermont Foot xG
29%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Martigues vs Clermont Foot FAQs
What time does Martigues vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Martigues vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 10 January 2025 at Stade Jean Laville.
What was the final score in Martigues vs Clermont Foot?
Martigues 0 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Martigues vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Jean Laville.
What competition is Martigues vs Clermont Foot part of?
Martigues vs Clermont Foot is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 18) (France).
Who is favourite to win Martigues vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Martigues a 19% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 47% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Martigues vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Martigues and Clermont Foot will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (71%).
Will Martigues vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (78%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Martigues's attack rating (0.43) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Martigues's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Martigues's last 17 games and Clermont Foot's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (19.2%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
19%
5.20
34%
2.94
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.6%
Draw
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.57
Martigues xG
Total xG
1.63
1.06
Clermont Foot xG
5.20
19%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.48
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
57%
1.77
Win to Nil
7%
15.02
26%
3.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.6 | 20.8 | 11.0 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Martigues vs Clermont Foot Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Martigues vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are Martigues and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 0.57 expected goals for Martigues and 1.06 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Martigues vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Martigues come into this having played 17 games, going 3W 3D 11L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.18 PPG from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Clermont Foot carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Martigues — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Martigues's home form reads 0W 1D 7L across their last 8 home games, a 0.12 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.71 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 8 away games (3W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Clermont Foot come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Martigues are averaging 0.59 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.88 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Martigues have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Martigues
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
Martigues (Home) vs Clermont Foot (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Martigues
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Martigues vs Clermont Foot Form FAQs
What form are Martigues and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Martigues have gone 3W 3D 11L in their last 17 games (0.71 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Martigues at home or Clermont Foot away?
Clermont Foot's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Martigues at home: 0.12 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 10 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Martigues
0
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Martigues vs Clermont Foot H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Martigues and Clermont Foot?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Martigues have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Martigues and Clermont Foot last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 January 2025: Martigues 0-1 Clermont Foot.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Martigues see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Martigues 12% BTTS, Clermont Foot 12%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Martigues and 25% for Clermont Foot.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 38%; Martigues have failed to score in 88% of games; Clermont Foot in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Martigues home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Martigues vs Clermont Foot Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Martigues and Clermont Foot matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Martigues's recent matches and 12% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Martigues and Clermont Foot matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Martigues's recent games and 25% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Martigues and Clermont Foot matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 38% of Martigues's recent matches and 62% of Clermont Foot's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Clermont Foot edge out Martigues 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Martigues 0-1 at Stade Jean Laville, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 0.57 xG and Clermont Foot 1.06 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.43 / defence 1.47 against Clermont Foot attack 0.70 / defence 0.99, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Martigues 19% | Draw 34% | Clermont Foot 47%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 47%, Clermont Foot 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Martigues's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 65% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Clermont Foot arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points. Martigues (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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