Martigues 0-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Martigues vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Martigues welcome Bastia to Orange Vélodrome. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Martigues have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Martigues have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bastia's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Martigues) versus 1.80 (Bastia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Martigues 0.90 xG and Bastia 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Martigues attack 0.705 / defence 1.135 | Bastia attack 1.031 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.142. Martigues's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Martigues games / 40 Bastia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Martigues 25% | Draw 28% | Bastia 47%. Fair-value odds: Martigues 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Bastia 2.13. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Martigues vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Orange Vélodrome • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Martigues 25% | Draw 28% | Bastia 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Martigues 0.90 / Bastia 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Martigues attack 0.705 / def 1.135 | Bastia attack 1.031 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Bastia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Martigues xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Bastia xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Martigues vs Bastia kick off?
Martigues vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Orange Vélodrome.
What was the final score in Martigues vs Bastia?
Martigues 0 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Martigues vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Orange Vélodrome.
What competition is Martigues vs Bastia part of?
Martigues vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Martigues vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Martigues a 25% chance of winning, Bastia a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Martigues vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Martigues and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Martigues vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Martigues and Bastia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Martigues and Bastia in?
Martigues (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W. Bastia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Martigues's attack rating (0.70) and Bastia's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Martigues's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
25%
3.97
28%
3.58
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Martigues xG
Total xG
2.24
1.34
Bastia xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
7%
15.09
19%
5.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 14.3 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Martigues vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Martigues and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Martigues and 1.34 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Martigues vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Martigues have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Martigues, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bastia's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bastia are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Martigues.
The Goals Picture
Martigues are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Martigues's scoring rate against Bastia's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Bastia in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Martigues
Early Season
Bastia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Martigues and Bastia in coming into this match?
Martigues have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Bastia have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Martigues or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Martigues have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Bastia in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Martigues and Bastia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Martigues
0
Draws
2
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Martigues and Bastia?
From 2 meetings on record, Martigues have won 0, Bastia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Martigues and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Bastia 1-0 Martigues.
Who has won more matches between Martigues and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Martigues home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Martigues play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Martigues's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Martigues vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Martigues's recent games and 0% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out Martigues 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Martigues 0-1 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 0.90 xG and Bastia 1.34 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Martigues fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.70 / defence 1.14 against Bastia attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Martigues 25% | Draw 28% | Bastia 47%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 50%, Bastia 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Martigues managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.