Le Mans 3-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Mans vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Annecy make the trip to Stade Marie-Marvingt to face Le Mans in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Le Mans's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Le Mans, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Mans's home record at Stade Marie-Marvingt: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Marie-Marvingt. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Annecy (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Le Mans, 0 for Annecy and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Le Mans winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Le Mans — key trading statistics (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 23% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Annecy — key trading statistics (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Mans 52% versus Annecy 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Mans 32% | Annecy 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Mans 0.82 xG and Annecy 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Mans attack 0.763 / defence 0.768 | Annecy attack 1.118 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.201. Le Mans's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Le Mans's defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 25 Le Mans games / 59 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Mans 27% | Draw 34% | Annecy 39%. Fair-value odds: Le Mans 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Annecy 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Le Mans 30% | Annecy 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Mans vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Marie-Marvingt • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Mans 27% | Draw 34% | Annecy 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Le Mans 0.82 / Annecy 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Le Mans attack 0.763 / def 0.768 | Annecy attack 1.118 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Annecy (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Le Mans xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Annecy xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Mans vs Annecy kick off?
Le Mans vs Annecy kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stade Marie-Marvingt.
What was the final score in Le Mans vs Annecy?
Le Mans 3 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Le Mans vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marie-Marvingt.
What competition is Le Mans vs Annecy part of?
Le Mans vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Mans vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Le Mans a 27% chance of winning, Annecy a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Mans vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Le Mans and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Le Mans vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Mans and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): Le Mans 1W | Draws 0 | Annecy 0W.
What form are Le Mans and Annecy in?
Le Mans (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Annecy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Le Mans's attack at 0.76x the league average against Annecy's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.12x) against Le Mans's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 25/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
27%
3.67
34%
2.94
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Le Mans xG
Total xG
1.85
1.03
Annecy xG
3.67
27%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 16.2 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Mans vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Le Mans and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Le Mans and 1.03 for Annecy, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Mans vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Le Mans's recent record stands at 10W 11D 4L from 25 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Le Mans is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 8L across 25 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Le Mans against 1.56 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Le Mans have managed 6W 5D 2L from 13 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 6W 1D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Mans are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.36 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Le Mans have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Annecy in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Mans
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Mans and Annecy in coming into this match?
Le Mans have gone 10W 11D 4L in their last 25 games (1.64 PPG), while Annecy have gone 11W 6D 8L in their last 25 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Mans at home or Annecy away?
Le Mans's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Mans at home: 1.77 PPG; Annecy away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Le Mans or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Mans have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Annecy in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Le Mans
0
Draws
0
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Mans and Annecy?
From 2 meetings on record, Le Mans have won 2, Annecy have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Mans and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Le Mans 3-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Le Mans and Annecy?
Le Mans have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Mans tend to start slowly — only 23% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 31% (Le Mans) and 38% (Annecy) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Le Mans and 46% for Annecy.
On the defensive side: Le Mans keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Annecy in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Mans home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Mans play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Le Mans's recent matches and 38% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Mans vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Le Mans's recent games and 46% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Mans and Annecy tend to score early?
Le Mans have had a goal before half-time in 23% of their recent matches, Annecy in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Le Mans run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Mans beat Annecy 3-0 at Stade Marie-Marvingt, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Mans 0.82 xG and Annecy 1.03 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Le Mans beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Annecy landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Mans attack 0.76 / defence 0.77 against Annecy attack 1.12 / defence 0.96, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Mans 27% | Draw 34% | Annecy 39%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Le Mans win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Mans 32%, Annecy 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Mans's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Annecy's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Mans 1.64 PPG, Annecy 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Mans win broke the near-deadlock. Le Mans (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.