Le Havre 0-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Le Havre at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Quevilly encounter.

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Analysis

Quevilly make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Le Havre have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Le Havre's home record at Stade Océane: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.

Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Quevilly away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Le Havre against 1.50 for Quevilly. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Le Havre have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Quevilly in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Le Havre have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Quevilly managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Le Havre winning.

The historical record gives Le Havre a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 41% versus Quevilly 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 32% | Quevilly 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.06 xG and Quevilly 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.972 / defence 0.752 | Quevilly attack 0.753 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.067. Le Havre's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Le Havre games / 69 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Le Havre 46% | Draw 33% | Quevilly 21%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Quevilly 4.76. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Quevilly's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.66 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 30% | Quevilly 10% BTTS from recent games.

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