Le Havre 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Océane, Le Havre have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Amiens have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Amiens away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Le Havre against 1.20 for Amiens. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Le Havre lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Le Havre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Le Havre — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Amiens — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 40% versus Amiens 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 36% | Amiens 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.01 xG and Amiens 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.818 / defence 0.975 | Amiens attack 0.866 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.110. Data: 42 Le Havre games / 42 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 31% | Amiens 32%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Amiens 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 50% | Amiens 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 31% | Amiens 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Le Havre 1.01 / Amiens 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.818 / def 0.975 | Amiens attack 0.866 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Amiens xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Amiens kick off?
Le Havre vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Amiens?
Le Havre 1 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Le Havre vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Amiens part of?
Le Havre vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 36% chance of winning, Amiens a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Le Havre and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Amiens?
Record (2 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 1 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Amiens in?
Le Havre (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Amiens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.82x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.87x) against Le Havre's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
36%
2.75
31%
3.19
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.95
0.94
Amiens xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.94 for Amiens, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 14W 13D 15L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amiens's form line: 12W 17D 13L from 42 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Le Havre against 1.26 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 3W 11D 7L from 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.14 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Amiens in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Amiens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Amiens in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 14W 13D 15L in their last 42 games (1.31 PPG), while Amiens have gone 12W 17D 13L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Amiens away?
Le Havre's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.19 PPG; Amiens away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Amiens in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Le Havre
3
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Amiens have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Amiens 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Amiens?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 43%, Amiens 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Le Havre and 29% for Amiens.
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 38% of games; Amiens in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Le Havre's recent matches and 52% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Le Havre's recent games and 29% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Amiens tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Amiens in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre and Amiens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 5, as Le Havre and Amiens drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.01 xG and Amiens 0.94 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against Amiens attack 0.87 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 36% | Draw 31% | Amiens 32%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 36%, Amiens 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.31 PPG, Amiens 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.